"In some cases, it changes radically," Griz general manager Chris Wallace said. "It is human nature that what you see last sticks most prominently in your mind," Wallace said. "We give more credence to what guys do late than what they do early. ... But it's not just the tournament. The (draft) workouts can be an important part of the process in terms of putting the final grade on a player."While I don't doubt the importance of the NCAA Tournament - Chicago's Derrick Rose is another example with Memphis connections - I think an argument can be made for the tournament's role as misleading talent evaluators. Example: Toronto's Patrick O'Bryant, a lottery pick who burst on the scene in the tournament and then faded into obscurity during his, thus far, short and inconsequential pro career.
The problem, as I have argued recently in regards to college recruiting and rankings, is that development requires the right internal characteristics. How will a player react to becoming an instant millionaire? What are his goals? How does he handle failure? How does he handle success? How will he cope with adversity? How does he take care of his body?
Playing great or playing poorly in the NCAA Tournament does not answer these questions, which is why I have said before that a personal interview would be among the most important aspects of the draft process for me. If I can learn about the internal qualities of a player, I feel that I could make a better decision. I based my position that I would have drafted O.J. Mayo as the #1 player last year on several articles and interviews with Mayo and Beasley. Mayo appeared to have the drive and mental qualities consistent with a superstar, while Beasley seemed flakey (finding information on Rose's personality was more difficult, which is why I ultimately chose Mayo).
4 comments:
Totally agree with your stance. Long time reader first time response. A PRIME example that I am reminded of at least twice a week (between ESPN, ABC, and TNT) is Dwayne Wade. Because, truthfully, talent-wise as of June 2003 he WAS behind Lebron James, Carmelo Anthony,Chris Bosh....but I make the argument with several of my friends that when you are drafting/signing someone, you're not just taking an athlete, your signing a personality. How did Wade respond to all the accolades going to Lebron and Carmelo early? Do a quick search on youtube and watch some interviews of this guy...saw one where he said he completely turned it up a notch after seeing the love thrown at Bron and Melo during the ROOKIE game...how about winning a title and finals mvp in year three, yet being bombarded with "we are witness" and "chosen one" commercials every 5 minutes? And then being written off as the next flasf in the pan/flameout a la penny hardaway from 1 1/2 injury-plagued seasons FROM playing his heart out the previous three? It is wade's personality that lodged the proverbial chip on his shoulder to facilitate him rehabbing, improving his jump shot, handle, and having an undescribably season and clearly establishing himself in the top 3 of the NBA. So to make that comparison with OJ Mayo, I would totally agree and even go so far as to say the interviews and studying a prospect's personality (NO I DONT MEAN WONDERLIC TESTS) are actually better measurement tools then watching a game with a million points of subjectivity--chief among them level of competition. They say the draft is an inexact science, yet over the years and even in examples outside of sports, you see plenty of exaples of people whose drive, work ethic, and desire to get better and be successful far outweigh their talent initially, only to one day surpass those who they were origianlly compared to who were more "talented". Potential? Pssshht....my definition of that is how good you can be if you work harder minus how good you are now.
Nice take.
In 2003, I did not believe the argument was James or Anthony, as I believed that James was clearly the #1 player. I thought it was Anthony vs. Wade. As much as Anthony did for the 'Cuse to win the championship, Wade showed me even more getting Marquette to the Final Four. Back then, I couldn't really pinpoint it, and I hate when people talk about heart because it is so overused, but I think Wade played with a desire and an urgency which I noticed subconsciously and preferred to Anthony's obvious talents. Also, I still believe Anthony's best role is as an undersized power forward and did not like his defensive potential as a small forward.
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