Reading through the NBA Mock Drafts, it is easy to see what NBA people (the decision-makers and those who talk to the decision-makers and interpret their opinions online) value. To be a high draft pick, you need to have "potential" or "length." Unfortunately, "productive" relegates you to the latter half of the draft...
Evaluating the 2009 Draft by labels, not players.
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This is the reason that in most cases, the good teams remain solid each year. They are the teams picking in the bottom of the draft. This means that they are more likely to value the production because these players are viewed as "role" players. They have lower expectations and the players can work their way into being solid/great players. They are not looking for the savior that they high draft picks are expected to be. This means that the potential to be great outweighs the production in higher draft picks. If you are a team that has finish in the bottom 3rd of the league each year, you would think that you would want to put together pieces through the draft that can walk in and be productive. Instead these teams are hoping to get the next Kobe at the 8th pick.
Here's my thing. You have to have a star. However, stars are almost always drafted in the top 5 picks. So, if you're picking 11, and you're picking a kid based on potential, what are you getting? You're getting a kid like Brandon Wright or Anthony Randolph who has the body to be good but needs to learn how to play. Then, even though you're not very good, you don't play the kid because he's not good enough yet. How does he develop? If you're drafting a kid based on potential, you better trust your D-League affiliate or you better take a couple loses and get him some run in the rotation. Otherwise, he just gets set back further and further, in which case, you should have drafted the shorter, slower player who was more prepared to get minutes right away.
You have to communicate with management and coach and have patience. But, as we know, there is no patience in pro sports. So, why draft potential unless you're looking at someone like Greg Oden or Derrick Rose?
I know both times I was hired in Europe, management told me the goal was to develop younger players in Year 1 and then win in Year 2. Yeah, but there was no year 2 because we did not win enough. You can't expect, in my case, to develop 17 and 18-year-old kids in a pro league and win at the same time, especially when there are several young/rookie players.
That's why OKC and PDX have the right approach. They have not sacrificed their young players development (well, except for OKC's centers who were drafted way too early like Sene and Swift). They did not tell Durant to shoot less last year; they got Westbrook into the starting line-up in less than half a season. They give Green a ton of PT. They give Weaver PT.
Sacramento, otoh, with Green, have been up and down and undecided with his PT. He's a shooter. He needs confidence. He only gets that through consistent minutes.
Athleticism seems to be the only measure that merits one's worth in the NBA now days. For the 2-5 positions in the NBA, the players that are physically and athletically superior are the All-Stars. Past and present, you will find very few players that have ascended to the top ranks in their position that were not freak athletes.
The one position that is the exception to this rule - the PG.
Take a look at the best PGs in the NBA the past 5 years: Kidd, Nash, Billups, Derron Williams, Chris Paul, Parker. With the exception of CP and Parker, these are all guys with average/below average physical tools and athleticism.
Having said this, the evaluation of #23 Mock Draft Player looks like a very similar description of Derron Willliams coming out of college. How about the description of the #8 Mock Draft player? Javaris Crittenden? Jerryd Bayless? I understand I am pointing to a few extremes here, but just trying to get my point across.
One team that has finally figured this out is the Portland Trailblazers. Telfair? Jack? Bayless? No, their PG is Steve Blake, the lanky guy that looks like one of your high school best friends.
In SG, SF, PF, C positions; many times athleticism is the main determinant in success. However, athleticism isn't and never should be the first method in evaluating a PG.
Kobe Bryant is as skilled as any player to play the game, not to mention that he is as hard working as anyone in the game. Is Joe Johnson a freak athlete? Caron Butler? Paul Pierce? People call Pierce, "slow" and "unathletic." People say the same about Brandon Roy. If athleticism was all that mattered, James White and Gerald Green would be NBA All-Stars.
I think people overrate players like Amare Stoudemire and Dwight Howard because of their obvious athleticism, and underrate players like Al Jefferson, Lamarcus Aldridge, Kendrick Perkins, Rasheed Wallace, etc.
And, as I argue all the time, it depends on your definition of athleticism. Steve Nash is clearly one of the best athletes in the NBA. However, he is not explosive. Explosiveness is only one component of athleticism, though it is the easiest to see in the NBA - i.e. Nate Robinson.
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