Wednesday, January 14, 2009

Sam Bradford Stays in School

And everyone cheers...Yay college.

Bradford obviously never read my article, "The Leinart Lesson: An NBA Draft Preview," because he did not learn the Leinart Lesson. He seems like a smart kid, so I assume that he would have understood if he had read the article. So I can only surmise that he missed my free advice.

11 comments:

Billy said...

This was the year for him to come out. He is losing his offensive line, and gains nothing by staying in school another year. Is he going to stay a year after next as well? On another note, Sanchez made a big mistake in coming out this season. He may get paid this coming season, but he will more than likely be out of the league in 5 years. Had he stayed in school another year, he may have gotten a little less money, but he would have been better suited to succeed at the next level. The same is not true about Bradford. He likely would have been a top ten pick and next year he will probably fall even further down the board. One thing that Sanchez did get right was chosing this season to come out. He is rated just below stafford, and is considered hot because of his rose bowl performance in an otherwise dull year.

Brian McCormick said...

Sanchez made the right decision. He may end up as the #1 pick, which probably isn't a good thing except for financially.

However, if he returns, how much is he going to learn playing for his third offensive coordinator in 3 years who has no experience as a coordinator?

what will he prove by having another great season with an offense that would return 10 starters? He would suffer from the Leinart affect next year as any mistake would be magnified because people would expect perfection from an offense with that many weapons.

He's getting his degree. He's 22 years old. What else?

Business-wise, next year he'd be competing with McCoy, Tebow, Bradford and others to be drafted in the 1st round. I think it's the smart decision.

Billy said...

It depends on what you consider to be a success. He may have avoided the Leinart affect, but he more likely to accomplish the Leaf affect. Leaf was able to sign a big contract and was out of the league in a few years. He could have stayed in school for another year, gained the experience on the field, maybe his draft stock would have decreased, but he would have been able to better use his talents. The guy was a freak in terms of ability, but lacked the other benefits of staying in school another year. Business wise, it would be like a stock that starts off with modest gains, but is not a volatile commodity that will crash. Versus the IPO that jumps through the roof, but closes the year as a penny stock.

I agree that he chose the right time to come out given the market, but four years from now, we will be wondering why in the world the Lions did not take a page out of the Dolphins' playbook this year.

Brian McCormick said...

Okay, but what would he learn or develop by playing one more year with USC with an inexperienced offensive coordinator and a first-year quarterback coach (assuming the QB coach Carroll just hired leaves, as expected, for Cincinnati or Cleveland)?

Billy said...

That is even a better reason to stay another year. Just ask Alex Smith if he has had to change coaches and/or systems in his professional career. He would learn more from another person and have even more experiences to grow. Do you think that it was a good idea that Vince Young entered the draft when he did? He was riding high at the end of his junior year, and was not the student athlete material...but look at him now. Do you think that he would have grown a little more his senior year? Maybe he could have learned how to fail a little, instead of melting down at the pro level. Chances are, he still would have been a head case, but maybe not. He got his money though...

I am actually very surprised more juniors did not come out this year with the discussion of the NFL moving to the NBA like Rookie scaled contracts. This could be the last chance to get that big bonus.

Brian McCormick said...

There's no guarantee that Young would have developed.

As Malcolm Gladwell points out in one of his articles, there is very little to predict greatness for a QB. Much of an NFL QB's success is determined by fit in his NFL system. The NFL is way different than college football, so there is no way to predict who will work out and who will not. It's a guess.

If that's true, why wait? You have to learn a new game in the NFL, so why learn a new system in college?

Now, if the argument is that the player needs to learn how to learn, that could be an argument. However, if he did not learn that in 3-4 years, is one more year going to make a difference?

Young was a bad fit in Tennessee with Norm Chow. He never had an "NFL" arm mechanics. Of course, Kyle Boller was supposed to have picture perfect mechanics, so who knows?

And, that's the point. If you don't know, and college has little relevance to pro success, why wait?

Joe Flacco transferred to a DII because he couldn't get off the bench at a DI. But, he plays for a great O.C. who uses his strengths and doesn't worry about his weaknesses.

I think Sanchez' success has more to do with the O.C. that he has than whether or not he stays in school one more year. He seems mature, has a college degree, has a strong arm, has some intelligence, is used to the media, etc. If he fails, I think it will have more to do with the situation (Detroit?) than his leaving early.

Rids said...

Flacco played at Delaware which is a NCAA Div IAA (or FCS if you must) school and not a Div II school.

Billy said...

I can agree about Sanchez and his ability to make it at the next level. I do have questions about his desire to be #1 though. I think that he has all the tools and with the right OC he could turn out to be decent. I can see your point that it is a monetary decision that for him makes sense this year, but I still think that it will turn out to be a mistake. I only used Young because he is the most recent example of a QB who has failed coming out early. The list of senior QB's who are successful is much greater than that of underclassmen. Maybe it is the maturation process of playing the extra year, but each underclass QB seems to be immature. Sanchez is more mature than the others, and maybe he will be able to focus on getting better. I look at him like a Brooks Lopez. Well rounded guy who is more interested in the outside aspects of life, and less about the game. He is already trying to replace Gonzalez as the media favorite in the latino culture. Not to say this is a bad thing, but if I were a GM (not owner), I would be worried about his desire to be the best.

Brian McCormick said...

IAA is silly in the first place. He played in the second division anyway. Semantics.

As for Sanchez, the Latino culture created the Latino superstar. I don't think Sanchez knew he was Latino until he went to USC. I don't think it's a bad thing, however, that he has learned to speak Spanish so he can speak to the Spanish media and embrace a population that hero worships him. That, to me, is different than Brook Lope who says he just wants to be a video game designer. It's more like LeBron James who says he wants to be a billionaire. And, it hasn't really held James back.

So seniors succeed more than juniors? Probably. But they probably fail more too. Drafting a QB is a hit or miss. Did Cassell have a good year this year because he went to four years of school at USC instead of three? Or, was it because he had 3 years to learn without any pressure of expectations while sitting behind Brady and playing within a QB-friendly system?

One thing I believe is that coaches believe in the value of experience too much. If Brett Favre was not Favre, he would have been benched this year several times. Tavaris Jackson had two bad games and he was benched. Coaches trust veterans more than rookies so rookies and young QBs have to be exceptional or they have to have really patient coaches with owners who support them or they have to be #1 picks with huge signing bonuses where the coach feels compelled to play them because they eat so much of the salary cap.

If Belichek was on the hot seat this year, he would have signed a veteran QB and Cassell never would have had a chance. But, Belichek knows he's not going to fired and believes in his own genius, so he had patience.

How many other coaches are in that situation?

Why do these 40-year-old QBs hang around the league? It's because it is such a process to learn the NFL game, so once your in the club, someone will always want you because it is easier to have a veteran than to go with a young kid learning the NFL system. That's why QB is different than position in the NFL.

So, I think Sanchez (and Stafford because, honestly, Sanchez had a better year than Stafford, since Georgia was a prohibitive favorite this year that did not even make a BCS bowl) ultimate success depends more on his situation in the NFL than his additional time in college.

Billy said...

I can agree with the system being more important than the experience. That is the case with all qb's. I think we give too much credit to the QB in the first place. Dilfer is a great example of this. He was highly touted coming out of Fresno, went to Tampa (worst team in league) and struggled. He learned from his experience and was able to be a guy who just valued the ball. He was never asked to put the team on his back, and was then considered a decent vet. I happen to think he is the best analyst on ESPN for any sport, but that goes to show what experience and patience can do.

I do not begrudge Sanchez for opening his mind to his culture, I just wonder if he has the same determination as a LeBron. I hope for his sake that I am wrong and he is still in the league in 8 years, but I just don't think he will survive in the league once he fails out the shoot.

Yes, there are more failures as Seniors, but that is shear numbers. Try to name a QB who has succeeded long term when the came out of college as a Junior? I know it is skewed because they typically get thrown into the fire in a bad situation, but it still begs the question of their staying power.

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