Tuesday, July 08, 2008

Playing to Strengths

Apparently, Golden State signed Corey Maggette who happens to play the same position as the Warriors top two players, Stephen Jackson and Monta Ellis. While many Warriors' fans have clamored for more rebounding and interior defense, this move is smart.

Phoenix, in its attempts to win a championship, nullified its competitive advantage by attacking its weaknesses, which moved it closer to the rest of the pack. Like most teams, Steve Kerr wanted to address his teams weaknesses. However, a better move is to bolster one's strengths.

I think the Quentin Richardson for Kurt Thomas trade signaled the end of the Suns' brief era. Now, most hardly notice a change because Nash and D'Antoni ran the show for two more years, but the trade started the Suns on a road toward the middle, rather than playing at the fringes.

With Amare Stoudemire and Steve Nash, the Suns were never going to be a great defensive team. However, rather than bolster its strengths, the Q for Thomas trade attempted to address its weaknesses. However, it weakened its strengths (spread court, spacing, shooting) and had little effect on its weaknesses. Trading James Jones and signing Grant Hill was a similar move: Phoenix did not need another playmaker, with Nash and Diaw, it needed another shooter to space the floor. Drafting Alondo Tucker was another curious decision, especially when they drafted and traded or sold Rajon Rondo, Sergio Rodriguez, Rudy Fernandez and Nate Robinson, four players who fit the Suns' need and style better than Tucker.

Back to Golden State. Last year, I said trading Jason Richardson for Brandon Wright was a mistake. Like the Suns, they moved away from their strength. Playing a "normal" line-up, the Warriors are a far below average team. However, by playing a small line-up and playing fast, they create match-up problems in their favor. Sure, they also create disadvantages, but the battle becomes who can use their strengths and create the tempo they want. When the Warriors were playing hard and shooting well with four smalls on the court, they used their competitive advantages to beat the Mavericks. By trading Richardson for Wright and attempting to become more conventional, they moved closer toward average.

Signing Maggette is a good move because he bolsters their strengths. While I still think they could use a PG, try defending a line-up with Monta Ellis, Stephen Jackson and Maggette. They are going to shoot 30+ free throws a game without a post presence.

If the Warriors have money left over, they should make a run at Sasha Vujacic. he'd be a great back court complement to Ellis as a starter or off the bench. Other alternatives would be to gamble on Shaun Livingston or maybe even Jamal Tinsley when Indiana eventually cuts him or Carlos Arroyo. None is perfect, but they need an additional PG to play with and back-up Ellis. They need the versatility to go small and play Maggette and Jackson at forward with Ellis and another guard in the back court so they can create real match-up problems. Vujacic is the real deal and would be a great complement as a shooter, facilitator and defender.

That is their competitive advantage. If they try to play a conventional game, they'll be exposed because Ellis isn't a true PG and Wright isn't ready to be an NBA big guy. But, if they continue to build around their strengths, they have a chance to compete for the play-offs because of their unconventional style of play.

As for the Clippers, now that they lost their inside game, they may have to make the big gamble and relieve the Knicks of Zach Randolph. I can't think of another inside player with the potential to offer anything close to Brand's production who would be available. Otherwise, the Clippers might have to go small too, which wouldn't be a terrible proposition with BDiddy, Thornton and Eric Gordon.

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

That is one of the smartest, most against the grain basketball pieces I have read in a long time. As a Wolves fan, what is your thoughts on Rodney Carney as well as resigning Telfair or taking a gamble on Shaun Livingston?

How do the Wolves best build around Jefferson and Love?

Thanks

J in Sota

Anonymous said...

Great point.

Brian McCormick said...

I almost never watch the Timberwolves. I did not see a single game last year. I like Telfair if a coach is going to let his PG make plays. I watched him up close a couple summers ago and I've never seen someone with the ability to change speeds to so many different speeds. He'd be fantastic as a PG off the bench for the Warriors, actually, as he could get into the lane at will with the floor spread. I don't know if he runs the pick-and-roll well enough to be a good fit in a Phoenix-like system and if I am running a conventional half court system, I think there are several better options.

Carney is interesting. He gives the Wolves a little bigger wing presence along with Miller and Brewer. He's a super athlete, but I just don't know how well he understands the game. I mean, if he struggled in Philly, how is he going to fit in a more complex, structured system? But, as a 4th or 5th wing, he's worth a gamble.

The only problem with Love and Jefferson is the interior defense. I worry that teams will have no fear attacking the rim becasue neither is a superb shot blocker. Love did a decent job blocking shots, but he's one of the few who seems to get more blocks against his man rather than in help. That puts a lot of pressure on the perimeter guys to keep their man in front of them.

I just wonder how they will play. Their desired scheme would dictate whether I signed Telfair or not, though if he is affordable, I'd probably take the gamble either way, because he could be a good change of pace guard off the bench.

I would imagine the Wolves look to a high-low game with Jefferson and Love. Miller is a great piece because you can use him to space the floor or off screens to set-up post entries. I like to use ball screens to start high-low situations. Love sets a good screen and is a good pick and pop player and he's a good passer. If Foye can run the pick and roll reasonably well, I'd probably use lots of pick and rolls to set-up post entries and then do some Piston-like motion with Miller running off screens and looking for his shot or the dump to the screener going to the rim.

A Foye-McCants-Miller-Love-Jefferson line-up is intriguing, but they better shoot well and score some points, because teams are going to attack the rim at-will. They better play great position defense and take lots of charges to make teams think twice about jumping wildly in the air on the way to the rim.

Walton's Wisdom said...

Great insight. I have had the same thoughts about the Suns' moves the past few seasons. If they are trying to change identities to a defensive-oriented team, it may take awhile to realize that goal. Their two best players are considered in most circles to be defensive liabilities (Nash & Stoudemire), and Shaq is miserable in defending the pick & roll. I know they didn't win a title, but they were in the upper echelon of the league -- why mess that up?

To your point, what was your reaction to the Bulls taking Rose #1? The Bulls' strength is clearly backcourt (Deng included) play... many people think they should have drafted Beasley because of their lack of inside scoring (even though Beasley does much of his damage from the perimeter). I guess we may not have a fair barometer with which to measure this trade until we see what type of style Del Negro employs...

Walton's Wisdom said...

In above post, by "trade" I obviously meant "pick."

Brian McCormick said...

I thought the Bulls should take Rose. But, I also did not see that much of Beasley and when I saw Gunnin for That #1 Spot, he looked better than I thought. But, with the questions about how serious he takes the game, I would have drafted Rose, based on the information available to the public. If I interviewed Beasley and decided he had every intention of being a great player, he may have changed my mind. However, I also think his size and strengths, to some degree, mirror Thomas and Noah, though I think Beasley is better than the other two.

I still think the Bulls are overrated because they have a bunch of nice parts, but none that is exceptional, unless Rose develops into a #1 guy. I'm not a huge Gordon fan and think Deng is overrated to a degree. I think Del Negro uses a Suns-like system, but they need some shooters to space the floor in such a system. Gordon can shoot, but Deng is not a 3-pt shooter and neither is Hughes, Thomas, Noah, Gooden, etc. Nocioni becomes a key player if VDN runs a Suns-system, as he is an important player as the 4-man.

Anonymous said...

How far is Marco Bellinelli from being a contributor? He reminds me a lot of Manu Ginobli but he lacks confidence. Could the Warriors trade Harrington for someone valuable and not Heinrich? Would you trade Brandan Wright for an Acie Law type + a draft pick?

Walton's Wisdom said...

I personally like Gordon, especially if they play a Suns-like system and think Rose's strength (for a point guard) would enable them to avoid some mismatches on the defensive end if both were on the court at the same time. Deng will definitely never be mistaken for a three point shooter, but you made a good point about Nocioni playing a small four -- this would give them two three-point shooters on the court which would be adequate with Rose as a facilitator.

I see Beasley as more of a resemblance of Thomas/Nocioni (parts of each) than I do Thomas and Noah, because he is such a great scorer. I was of the same opinion that Rose was the right pick.

Anon - I know your question was for BMAC, but having watched Belinelli I'm not sure the Manu comparison is quite there. While he is a gifted scorer like Manu (with a similarly unconventional style of offensive play), I don't see it on the defensive end. Ginobili is a very good individual and help defender with active hands. The reason Belinelli didn't play last year (if you can believe it considering Nellie's disregard for defense) is that he was such a horrible defender. Ginobili has been called by Popovich the most competitive player he has ever coached -- I don't see that from Bellinelli in his on-court demeanor. BMac may have a different opinion...

UKFANMAN said...

As to Maggette to the Warriors, they also have a hidden gem as in Kelenna Azubuike. He is young and explosive. He also has a great mid-range game with a consistent 3-point shot. His athleticism will constantly get him to the rim for some thunderous slams. With so much attention on Ellis, Jackson, and Maggette,Azubuike will be a rising star as the Warriors will make the playoffs. He has a chance to be the NBA'S Most Improved Player.

Brian McCormick said...

Agreed. I like him. My point, however, is that a team like the Warriors need depth at the position because they play so small. Adding two more power forwards is great in theory, but if they sit on the bench while the wings play 44 minutes a game, what's the point in a balanced roster? A team that plays small needs depth at those positions.