In 2006, I wrote an article titled "Potential is a Dangerous Word as NBA Draft Approaches." Every spring, the media and NBA General Managers fall for length, upside and potential. All-Stars like Gilbert Arenas and Carlos Boozer last to the second round while players like Sene, Ndubi Ebi and others receive guaranteed first round money.
If college basketball success plays no part in a player's draft status, why does the NBA insist players attend college?
In almost every mock draft, Arizona's Jerryd Bayless and USC' O.J. Mayo are top five picks while UCLA's Russell Westbrook is at the end of the lottery. However, head-to-head, Westbrook outplayed Bayless and Mayo.
UCLA's Kevin Love is all over draft boards because people believe he is "unathletic" even though he is as accomplished as any player in the draft.
The most egregious example, however, is Cal's Ryan Anderson who led the Pac-10 in scoring in a conference featuring lottery picks Mayo, Bayless, Stanford's Brook Lopez and Love. Somehow, most mock drafts have Anderson's teammate Devon Hardin picked ahead of Anderson despite Hardin's inability to stay healthy and illustrate any type of offensive fundamentals.
If Anderson was from Serbia, he would be a lottery pick for sure. He is everything NBA executives crave: a 6'10 power forward with some back to the basket game, mobility and three-point range. Sure, he needs to add some strength, but potential lottery picks Brook Lopez, Donte Greene, Anthony Randolph and DeAndre Jordan need strength as well. However, they possess "upside" and "length" while all Anderson possesses is offensive fundamentals and demonstrated ability in the NCAA's best conference.
NBA execs travel to Europe every year to find the next Nowitski. However, the next Nowitski might be from El Dorado Hills playing his college ball in Berkeley (ironically, had Nowitski attended college rumors had him headed to Cal). Before falling in love with the length and upside of some other players, NBA execs should travel west to check-out the accomplished Anderson. In the right system (Orlando, Houston), Anderson will be a very good professional player, while some of the players with "upside" and "potential" will never realize their potential or utilize their upside.
Sunday, May 25, 2008
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15 comments:
I agree with you completly. Its as if NBA executives want to pick the international player before a US player because people know less about the foreign guy and have less info to critique the choice. Foreign players have made major contributions to the league, but American players like Anderson need love too.
Ahem...Steve Novak? Pat Garrity?
Can we stop the "if he were European" stuff. The only two international prospects slated to go in the top 20 are Gallinari and Batum.
Obviously you haven't seen him play as he is unlike either player. He is a far better all-around player than Novak and has a bigger frame. As for Garrity, he is bigger, more athletic and a better shooter from three. And, he accomplished far more in college - Novak was a role player in college. Anderson was the star and the only decent player on his team and scored 20ppg against good competition and constant double-teams.
As for Euros, he is what they look for in a European. Unfortunately, they look for different skill sets in American players. How can Andrea Bargnani be the #1 pick and Anderson is barely a thought for the 1st round? Because Bargnani has an inch or two?
Gee, just say it you bunch of cowards:
you want fundamentaly sound players who learn to play in a team environment from a young age and are usually well followed/formed in their various youth national selections where they often perform at high levels in various european and international events?
You take a euro player.
You want supremely gifted physical specimens bred for power? Black americans.
White americans are made for college ball where they peak. There are enough Scalabrines, Shirley, Ostertag, Bonners in the league.
For them to make it in the NBA is akin to jamaicans making it in the NHL.
Sure its possible and even happens ...but cmon...
Anderson's can definitely score, but man his defense is atrocious. For that reason I can't see him as anything more than a backup.
How many players enter the NBA as good defensive players? David Thorpe says that is the biggest deficiency of college players. Plus, Anderson played out of position for much of his college career, much like Dirk Nowitski early in his career. Nowitski was labeled a terrible defender when he played center, but he moved to PF with Diop and Dampier next to him and suddenly everyone commented about his improved defense. Did he really improve or was he just put in a position to succeed?
That's why I see Orlando as a great fit, as he would have Dwight Howard behind him and would match up on PFs.
Bonner and Sacalabrine are 6'8. Neither led a major conference in scoring and neither was even the best player on his college team. These examples aren't even close. Anderson is 6'10 and possibly still growing. While many other players inthe draft have already filled out, he has room to grow into his body. So, in truth, he has upside, where some others don't. He'll probably never be a defensive stopper, but he also is a smart player who can block some shots and understands the game.
One way to tell if a guy is going to become a good defender is by looking at his blocks and steals college statistics. No, this isn't perfect or anything like it, but it's not as ridiculous as you might think. Anderson's numbers are just dangerously low. Even guys like Carlos Boozer and Antawn Jamison (undersized guys who haven't played much defense in the pros) were putting up much higher (but still pretty bad) block and steal numbers at the same age. Kevin Love (famed for his alleged lack of athleticism) is at 3.0 steals + blocks per 40 despite playing on a very slow team, which is actually ok and I don't think he's going to be the defensive liability people say he is. Michael Beasley's blocks + steals (3.4) per 40 minutes are roughly three and a half times higher than Anderson's (1.0 - ouch) and people complain that HE doesn't play enough defense. How bad is Anderson's going to be? If you want to talk about underrated guys struggling to get into the first round, how about Richard Hendrix, JJ Hickson and Mario Chalmers? I just looked up Hendrix on Draft Express. One of the first things listed under strengths is "productivity". You couldn't make this stuff up. Somehow this might not be enough to get him into the first round. BTW, good point on Bargnani.
I love Chalmers and did not understand why he never appeared on a mock draft before the Final Four. As for Hendrix and Hickson, I haven't seen either enough to write about them. Anderson I have seen. I agree that Love is not as bad defensively or athletically as people perceive him to be.
Anderson isn't perfect. He needs to get stronger and improve defensively. However, so does everyone in the draft. Anderson just has an offensive skill set which many of the other taller, longer players lack. So, do you draft a longer player and hope he develops an offensive game and a defensive game or do you draft Anderson and hope he adds some defensive to become a well-rounded player?
I like JaVale McGee. I did not understand why people did not include him among potential prospects before he entered the draft. But, I don't like him enough to gamble on him ahead of Anderson. And, there is no way Devon Hardin should go ahead of his teammate just because he jumps higher.
Spencer Hawes went #10 last year and Anderson destroyed Hawes head to head in college.
Hey Brian,
Not to impugn your great basketball knowledge, but when exactly did Ryan Anderson destroy Spencer Hawes? They only played against each other one time on January 13, 2007. Anderson scored 18 on less than 33% shooting and Hawes scored 13.
http://scores.espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=270130025
In the second game on February 8, 2007, Hawes did not play.
You may now return to your side job as a basketball scout
I went to Cal and I really hope you're right. When I watched Anderson, though, I saw a guy who could find his way into the league because of his outside shooting, and so would find his way into that Brian Cook niche where he could succeed by never flourish. He has the full repertoire of offensive skills but would he be able to muscle inside in the NBA? I kind of assumed he'd drift out to the 3 point range in the NBA and never be given the chance to become more of a Pau Gasol or Dirk. I hope you're right and I'm wrong though.
I think Hardin is liked because he's a solid hunk of a player who can rebound with the big boys. He has very little offensive game because Ben Braun couldn't coach offense. At all. But if Hardin can catch and dunk in the league, he'd have some value. And if he can't do that, then he'd fit right in with the Memphis Grizzlies corps of Centers anyways...
Well, if the January 13 game was at Berkeley, Anderson completely outplayed him because I was at that game. If the game at Berkeley was the one where Hawes didn't play, then I apologize for my mistake.
As for Hardin, I know Braun doesn't develop players. But, I just don't see Hardin developing in the pros either.
That is my point, really. I don't expect Anderson to be a star and Brian Cook isn't a bad analogy, though I think he plays harder and has a better attitude, just from what I've heard about both from various sources. So, a better Brian Cook isn't a bad comparison. But, I think Anderson is definitely a rotation player and he has a skill set that fits in the NBA. If he works on his strength, he has decent moves inside - having watched the kid since hs, I think he'll work on his strength. He is a late bloomer unlike many others who were "discovered" in 8th grade because they were already full size.
But, more to the point, why would you want Hardin who is athletic and can dunk and the chances he adds to that and overcome 3 to 4 wasted years of college is slim over a player who already has a role he can fill in the NBA as a 4-man who can spread the floor. If he lasts to the Spurs, they could use someone like him off the bench right now, as they need a 4 who can shoot. I haven't seen Mahinmi enough to know if he can be that player for them.
In a larger sense, the argument at the middle to end of the first round is: Do you pick a player who can fill a role for you (like Jason Maxiell) or do you pick a player with a ton of potential to sit on the bench for 2-3 years and hopefully develop into a player (like Amir Johnson to stay with the Pistons)?
I believe good teams, more often than not, grab the player they know can fill a role, while bad teams try to hit the home run with the potential and watch the potential fail to develop.
How many players drafted outside the top 15 based strictly on potential have developed into really great players? Now, how many proven college players with one deficiency (two inches too short, "unathletic," streaky jump shot, etc) have developed into great players (I'm thinking, of course, of players like Carlos Boozer, Rajon Rondo, Gilbert Arenas, Paul Milsap, etc.)? I'm curious. I'd love to see a study on how many players like sene, Patrick O'Bryant, Dasgna Diop, Ndubi Ebi, Amir Johnson, etc. actually develop into players.
Just looking at the 2000 NBA draft and I would have to say that the accomplished college player with a few deficiencies have made out better.
15 Jason Collier (C) Flag of the United States United States Milwaukee Bucks (traded with future first-round pick to Houston for Joel Przybilla) Georgia Tech Sr.
16 Hedo Türkoğlu (SF) Flag of Turkey Turkey Sacramento Kings Efes Pilsen (Turkey) 1979
17 Desmond Mason (SF/SG) Flag of the United States United States Seattle SuperSonics Oklahoma State Sr.
18 Quentin Richardson (SF/SG) Flag of the United States United States Los Angeles Clippers (from Toronto via Atlanta, Philadelphia and New York) DePaul So.
19 Jamaal Magloire (C) Flag of Canada Canada Charlotte Hornets Kentucky Sr.
20 Speedy Claxton (PG) Flag of the United States United States Philadelphia 76ers Hofstra Sr.
21 Morris Peterson (SF/SG) Flag of the United States United States Toronto Raptors (from Minnesota) Michigan State Sr.
22 Donnell Harvey (SF) Flag of the United States United States New York Knicks (traded with John Wallace to Dallas for Erick Strickland and Pete Mickeal) Florida Fr.
23 DeShawn Stevenson (SG) Flag of the United States United States Utah Jazz (from Miami) Washington Union HS (Fresno, CA) HSSr.
24 Dalibor Bagarić (C) Flag of Croatia Croatia Chicago Bulls (from San Antonio) Benston Zagreb (Croatia) 1980
25 Iakovos "Jake" Tsakalidis (C) Flag of Greece Greece Phoenix Suns AEK (Greece) 1979
26 Mamadou N'Diaye (C) Flag of Senegal Senegal Denver Nuggets (from Utah) Auburn Sr.
27 Primož Brezec (C) Flag of Slovenia Slovenia Indiana Pacers Union Olimpija (Slovenia) 1979
28 Erick Barkley (PG) Flag of the United States United States Portland Trail Blazers St. John's So.
29 Mark Madsen (PF) Flag of the United States United States Los Angeles Lakers Stanford Sr.
The only real upside pick that amounted to anything was stevenson. He really is just now coming into his own though, and he is not with the team he was drafted by when this happened. Obviously this was a crap draft year, but Michael Redd and Eddie house went in the second round of this draft.
I'm adding you to my favorite blogs link. Great stuff.
I'm of the same school of thought regarding Anderson, in fact, I have him listed as a late lottery pick in my own mock draft:
http://waltonswisdom.blogspot.com/2008/06/my-2008-nba-mock-draft-lottery.html
I think Anderson could be a Mike Miller type of guy, obviously bigger. But a guy who can score double digits and be a good 4th or 5th scorer on a team. However he could easily turn into a Pat Garrity or a Bonner. But this kid might just have a hard time guarding, anyone.
Good Stuff!
http://www.collegefastbreak.com/d-league-wonder-rod-benson-interviews-cals-ryan-anderson/
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