Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Warriors Miss the Play-offs

In September, I wrote:
And, with Jason Richardson in Charlotte and Don Nelson holding out for more money, one has to wonder if Golden State was a one-hit wonder which captivated America for a fleeting moment or if they can sustain their postseason momentum into the 2007-08 season.

This drew a great deal of dissent:
They may have lost Jason Richardson, but in the process they have addressed their deficiency from last season...FRONT LINE presence. With the additions of Wright, Croshere, Perovic and Lasme, I would say that their line up has improved.

I wrote:
I don't see Wright having a huge impact this year. I always thought he was overrated. He has talent, but he has yet to reach it. I love Lasme, but he's a 6'7 shot blocker: maybe he can be this year's Paul Milsap. Maybe not. I don't see how Perovic fits in the GSW system, but we'll see.

I do not think, right now, the team is better than they were at the end of the season last year. They might be by the end of the season this year, but if they start slow again, will they have enough to make a miraculous finish like last year? Plus, wins in the West will be tougher,

Well, pretty accurate. The West was tough, a slow start ultimately cost GSW and Wright, Lasme and Perovic offered very little.
But, the replies continued:
The 19 year old you are referring to is not that much younger than your Center Andris (21 Years old)whose scouting reports before he was drafted was quite similar to Wright's. Good hands, Tenacious shot blocker, A Lefty with High Percentage shooting, Wright may even be more athletic than Biedrins. He has a slight edge with his freethrow shooting and mid range jump shots. You can not count the kid out, he is as promising as any lottery pick before and after him in this years draft. Perovic is an unknown, but what would you give up to have a 7'2 center that has a clean Mid range shooting and a good basketball IQ? (in the likes of: Vlade Divac). He can also rebound by the way-a Warrior deficiency over the years. I just dont see why you would call this roster less of a team from last year when all they are missing now is a natural back up point guard...when last year, they were missing just that and the front line help that they now posses.

So, I continued:
Wright is not as good as the player's drafted ahead of him or behind him. Not a chance he is, right now, in the same category as Oden, Durant or Horford. He has one move. Plus, Biedrinis is a very average post player anyway, so saying he will be like Biendris during his rookie year does not offer a lot for the up coming season.

I expect NO to be in the play-offs. Memphis is greatly improved from last season. They effectively added Gasol, Conley, Milicic and Navarro. They should be a play-off team too. They signed Gasol's best friend; I think he is happier to be in Memphis now.

The Lakers are good. I don't care what anyone says. Kobe is the best player in the league and Odom is a good #2 threat. They have size inside with Bynum, Turiaf and Brown. They're in.


Oops, I missed big time on Memphis.
JRich was the rock, not the star. He was the steadying influence on the team for several years and gave a consistent effort every night.

The question for Perovic is if he can keep pace with the rest of the team, not to mention the transition to NBA basketball. He might be a nice player, but I don't see him as a big improvement over last season.

So, you subtract JRich and Pietrus is uncertain and you add 3 rookies, each with limitations. Plus, a disgruntled coach with nothing to prove. I just don't see them as being improved.

But, my adversary was still unconvinced:
I don't see why you would still say that this team is less skilled. It's almost like saying, having J-Rich in the Roster is better than having Three POWER FORWARDS who are skilled enough to reach the NBA and who are at the peak of their potentials. J-Rich is no Kobe, he is definitely no KG nor Steve Nash. So who's to say that having him is better than addressing the team's weakness last season? Having these three promising Rookies are better than having the same roster again last year. This Roster is better equipped to go up against this year's Bolstered Eastern and Western Conference.

So, I shot back:
None of the 3 power forwards are at the "peak of their potential" as you suggest. Not even close. If Lasme has a great season and exceeds all expectations, he might approach the season Paul Milsap had last season as a back-up for the Jazz. Perovic could be great, or he could end up like Illic of the Nets who they are trying to cut. When has Nelson really enjoyed playing a prototypical center anyway? And, Wright is nowhere near his potential. If he exceeds most people's expectations, he could have a similar affect as Aldridge or Thomas did last season, which is to say that he will have some spectacular highlights, but will not win games on a day to day basis.

But, in reality, you're right. I do not think that 3 rookie power forwards equal the production of JRich and potentially Pietrus. JRich is good for 22PPG every night. Between the 3 PFs, I would take the under on their season averages being +/- 22PPG.

And, forgotten in the hype of the play-offs is that they barely qualified for the play-offs last year. One game.

I do not see any reason to suggest that the Golden State Warriors will be any better this season than last. We'll see. But, you're expectations for three rookies are way too high. Wright is a teenager with one post move and no game outside of five feet; there are SG's who weigh more than he does. What PF can he guard in the Western Conference? Duncan? Nowitski? Nene? Aldridge? West? I hope he's been lifting a lot this summer. How does Perovic fit with their style of play? Will they run their offense through Perovic, like your Vlade Divac comparison, with BDiddy on the floor? Is there any guarantee that he is a better player than Adonal Foyle?

You're putting way too much emphasis on one play-off series as opposed to an entire season of play. I trust 82 games more than a 7 game series. And, the Warriors barely made the play-offs last year, traded away an important piece of their team and are relying heavily on rookies. I think New Orleans is a better team. And, I think Sacramento is a better team if everyone plays together (Artest and Bibby). And, I think Memphis is a play-off caliber team if Gasol stays healthy.


Oops on Sacramento and Memphis.

And, it continued. What happened to Memphis? I really thought they'd be better. At least I had New Orleans as a play-off team and Sacramento fell apart with Bibby's injury and internal strife. We'll see what next year brings for the Kings.

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