Shaq to the Suns

My first reaction was disbelief. Then, frustration as one of the few fun teams to watch would add an aging, plodding center to ruin its attack. However, the trade makes sense if Sarver is willing to up the ante and spend the money he has been hoarding the last two years.

1. The Suns were not going to beat the Spurs or Lakers in a 7-game series. The Lakers would have beaten the Suns this year even without Gasol. They are a terrible match-up for the Suns inside and Gasol just adds to it.

2. Marion has been on the market for 2 years and can opt out this summer. Sure, the Suns' style makes him look even better than he is and he probably can't make more money anywhere else, but if Joe Johnson can leave PHX to join ATL, why wouldn't Marion opt out and join Ivaroni in Memphis or somewhere else so he can prove he is the man?

3. All reports suggest PHX has chemistry issues, which really hurts because they started on this string because their chemistry was so good initially. So, if they aren't going to win a championship, they might lose Marion anyway and their chemistry is por, why not make a change?

4. Sure, Shaq had 40 million dollars over 2 years. But, it's 2 years. Nash has 2 or 3 left on his contract and the Suns were probably going to look at rebuilding when Nash leaves anyway, as they have nobody on their roster who can play back-up point, let alone take over when Nash retires (assuming he does not come back for a couple more years).

This is not a desperate move. It is a gamble. The Suns just went all in. But, rebuilding in PHX will be much nicer if they have championship banners to look at, and they were not going to get there without a change. Now, maybe a minor change or tweak would have been enough. But, they needed a change.

At this point, Marion is clearly the better player, so you have to say the Heat wins the trade, especially since everyone believed Shaq's contract was untradeable.

However, there is one piece to the puzzle nobody has mentioned:

PHX has the best training staff in the country. They keep Steve Nash upright; Amare Stoudemire practically performed a miracle with his quick return from microfracture surgery. What if the Suns' staff can work wonders with Shaq, and Shaq gets to 85% of his normal Shaqness? Is 85% of Shaq at his best better than Shawn Marion? Would a rejuvenated Shaq, with something to prove for the first time in a while, take the Suns to the promised land?

That is the gamble. Has there ever been a trade determined by the success of a team's athletic trainer? The Suns made a gamble, but all things considered, it is a smart move because the risk is small (even if Shaq doesn't play, the Suns will make the play-offs and have a chance to win the first and second round - they still have a starting five of nash, bell, hill, diaw and stoudemire- while with Marion, the Conference Finals is far as they would have gone anyway) and the reward if Shaq gets healthy and plays motivated is HUGE -World Championship rings for everyone.

Now, how does Shaq fit? This hurts the Suns spacing, as Marion could stretch the defense in ways Diaw and Shaq will not. However, if Shaq is no the block and Nash and Amare run a pick and roll on the opposite side, you can't help off Shaq or Nash throws it to the rim and no help defender is going to stop Shaq from dunking. Plus, this means more favorable match-ups for Stoudemire both offensively and defensively. In the end, the big question becomes:
1. Against the Lakers, can Shaq handle Bynum's athleticism and can Bynum handle Shaq's experience? Can Gasol and Odom contain Stoudemire?
2. Against San Antonio, can Shaq defend Duncan?

One final point: Stoudemire has made it known he dislikes playing center. Rumors have circulated about his unhappiness, which prompted the KG rumors over the summer. Could this trade be a preemptive strike against Stoudemire making demands to move to a team that allowed him to be the versatile forward he seems to believe he is?