Everyone believes the Lakers basically stole Gasol from Memphis and now are championship contenders. I disagree on a couple levels.
First, from the beginning of the season, I believed that if Kobe Bryant truly was the best player in the league and the Lakers started Andrew Bynum and got him some confidence, they already were championship contenders.
I agree that the Lakers got the best of the deal because they got the best player in the trade and did not have to give away too much.
However, I believe Kwame Brown is a better player than anyone gives him credit for being. Sure, he never should have been the #1 pick in a draft, but shouldn't we criticize MJ for that, not Brown? It's not his fault that the Wiz drafted him #1. It's not like he could turn down the draft pick and advise the Wiz to pick someone else.
But, he is a good player off the bench and probably the Lakers best interior defender. At no time this season have the Lakers struggled to score. However, to win, they needed to improve their defense. I imagine they traded Brian Cook for Trevor Ariza to improve their length and quickness on the wing in anticipation of players like Josh Howard, Manu Ginobili, Paul Pierce, Richard Hamilton, Shawn Marion, Tracy McGrady and more.
So, the Lakers weakened their defense while strengthening their offense. If Bynum is out for the season, I think it is a great trade. Gasol fills Bynum's role, albeit differently and the Lakers have an opportunity to win a championship. However, when Bynum returns, I don't see how Odom, Gasol and Bynum fit together. If Bynum is out, the Lakers have the rest of the season to decide whether to keep Gasol and trade Odom or vice versa. However, if Bynum returns this season, they have to figure this out on the fly. The Lakers were a contender with Bynum; will this trade mess up their mojo when he returns?
Again, I am not saying it is a bad trade. I am a Gasol fan. If the Lakers can trade Odom for some nice complementary pieces in the off-season, the Lakers have a young, deep, talented, expensive team that should be a contender for the next 3-4 years.
As for Memphis, while most in the media laugh at their ineptitude, remember the Suns. Everyone said, at the time, that the Knicks stole Marbury from Phoenix and Phoenix barely got anything in return. Of course, they got cap room which led to Steve Nash, while the Knicks got more headaches than they can handle. Can anyone name a player Phoenix received in the trade (I can name two and neither are in the NBA)? However, does anyone still think the Knicks won the trade?
If, and it is a big if, Memphis uses the cap space to sign a player like Elton Brand, Antwan Jamison or Gibert Arenas and they hit the jackpot in the lottery, won't they potentially be a better team next year and moving forward? After all, who did the Trailblazers get for Zach Randolph? Yet, who won that trade? Think P-Town is upset that they gave Randolph away for a back-up center and a player who they bought out before he could even fly into town?
So, Memphis signs Brand, Jamison or Arenas and drafts a top prospect like Michael Beasley, OJ Mayo, Derrick Rose, Eric Gordon, Danillo Galinari or Roy Hibbert. Plus, they have the Lakers' pick to select another prospect like Brandon Rush, Ryan Anderson, Bill Walker (Walker and Mayo together?), Hasheem Thabeet or another player who fits their roster. Plus, they add Marc Gasol and use Crittendon, Lowery or Conley as trade bait.
Imagine the possibilities: draft Rose and trade Conley (Portland, anyone?); draft Mayo or Gordon and trade Mike Miller (Cleveland on line 1; what about Miller and Crittendon for Anderson Vareajo?); draft Beasley and have two quick, versatile forwards to play in Ivaroni's supposedly up-tempo offense.
Even without a free agent signing, Conley, Miller, Gay, Beasley and Milicic with JC Navarro, Lowery, a player like Ryan Anderson and Gasol is a young, talented, versatile roster.
Of course, those are some big ifs. Trading for cap space only works if you use the cap space to sign some players. Trading for draft picks only works if you draft great players with the picks. Until Memphis makes its picks and its offers in free agency, the Lakers are the clear winners. However, if the trade messes with the Lakers mojo when Bynum returns and Memphis makes some great moves and picks, those laughing at the Grizz right now, like they did at the Suns when they traded Starbury, might have to apologize.
Regardless, it will be an eventful off-season for both of these teams, as I cannot imagine that LA will be able to keep Odom, Gasol and Bryant with Bynum's contract needing to be renewed and obviously the Grizz have a lot of work to do.
Saturday, February 02, 2008
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12 comments:
I think you're badly overestimating Kwame Brown's impact on the Lakers this year. He was an underrated defender in the last few years for LA, but this year the guy was just too hurt to move effectively, and this made him merely average on D. On offense he had regressed to the point where whatever he brought on D was more than negated by his mistakes and misses on offense. However, it should be pointed out that long-term Kwame's presence may not be missed as much as you think since the Lakers could very well re-sign him this summer as a FA once Memphis renounces his rights for that capspace. One would think Kwame could be had for cheap on the FA market and might wish to return to LA where he was so well liked by his teammates (and for a shot at a title).
I similarly think you're going to be wrong about Gasol's impact on the Lakers, especially when Bynum returns (the reports he's out for the year are erroneous, he's on schedule to be back in early March). Gasol's ability to block shots is something the Lakers have badly needed from the PF position for a long time, and the "twin tower" effect of using Gasol and Bynum together should really make things difficult for teams looking to drive on LA. Gasol at PF is an upgrade defensively over Odom; and while Odom is not quick enough to run around the perimeter that effectively after many small forwards, he's not really any worse at it than Luke Walton. If Luke and Lamar are getting lit up by the opposing team's SF though, the Lakers should be able to bring in Ariza at the 3 to help.
Some have suggested that to make it work with all those players there, Phil might want to use Odom in the way Pop uses Manu Ginobili: as a "super sub" off the bench. A starting 5 of Bynum, Gasol, Ariza, Kobe and Fisher would still be very devastating, especially with a bench of Turiaf, Odom, Walton/Radmanovic, Sasha and Farmar behind them.
That said, I do expect Odom to get traded this summer, probably packaged with either Radmanovic or Walton just to unload their contracts. In return if the Lakers can't land another huge impact player, they'd probably be satisfied with future draft picks and prospects.
what have you been smoking? i think you're badly overestimating Brown having a positive impact. The man was an effortless, emotionless, dud.
and i don't understand how mixing an excellent player in with bynum could somehow hurt them. were they really better off with odom at power forward? we all know how weak he is as a big man. the small forward role will work wonders for him as well as take even more pressure off him to score. this trade puts the lakers in championship contention.
I gotta say about Kwame that if you forget the fact that he was a #1 pick, he was a serviceable role player. Unfortunately his injuries did limit his ability to defend and negate any offense but he was a big body that could D up on the Tim Duncans and Amare's of the league.
My bigger concern is how Odom is going to do? He started the season at small forward and was moved back to power forward because he was having a hard time defending the quicker SF and we missed his rebounding. Not to mention his jumper has been MIA all season. I just think he needs the ball to much and is easily distracted. If things don't go his way early he is done for the game. I think they should trade him for some solid 3 point shooters. We are going to need them to keep the block open for Pau and Andrew.
First of all, Kwame's impact on the team is vastly overestimated, considering that the Lakers' highest point of the season so far was when Brown was injured. Seems to me that the team was doing just fine defensively without him, picking up 2 victories over Phoenix, and going on that sweet win streak. Also, the draft picks that Memphis picked up from the trade seem like an investment, but how high do you think those picks are going to be? You honestly think L.A. is going to finish low enough this season to get even a top 20 pick? Kwame Brown is a good defender, no one denies that, but as a starter, or even as a 6th man, the Lakers proved only to be a 7th seed AT BEST. Plus, when Bynum comes back, Gasol provides an area that Kwame never could- a high post in the triangle. Sure, Pau is terrific on the low block, but his jumper allows Bynum to continue to play his game. When Bynum goes out after fouling too much in the first half which he always does, it won't hurt this time, because look who's still left on the floor and filling in the low post. Being that Gasol is a constant professional, and Stephon Marbury has always been a notorious head case, you shouldn't even begin to compare this trade with that one, because everyone agreed that Phoenix's cap space was needed more. Don't argue against an obvious point with insufficient data, it only makes you look dumb, being that your a professional writer and all.
- The belief that Kwame is a good defender, at least in the overall sense, is a myth. There are three basic facets of defense for a big man.
1. Post Defense
2. Shot Blocking
3. Transition Defense
Kwame is among the best in the league in Post Defense. This is where he gets his "good defender" rep. But he is a terrible shot blocker, lacking the mental reflex to rotate and anticipate. He also lacks the jumping ability and has an average wingspan.
Lastly, Kwame is quick for a big so he can get back in transition. The problem is he turns the ball over so much on the offensive end and/or leaves his teammates 4 on 5 due to his offensive ineptitude that it leads to many run out opportunities for the opposition. Yes, Kwame helps the other team get out on the break.
As for what Pau gives you on defense there is no question he is a downgrade from Kwame on the block. But he is an even bigger upgrade in shot blocking and in transition (by both being quick in recovery and more careful with the ball on offense). The shot blocking piece is especially important in today's no-hand-check NBA.
Pau is down in blocks this year to 1.4 from an average of 2.0 over the last two years. But if you consider Bynum (2.0), Turiaf (1.3) and Pau it will be plenty difficult for slashing guards to find the rim.
As for those alligators in the post (Who exactly are we talking about other than Duncan and, well Bynum) Andrew can guard the block and so can Turiaf. If that fails Mbenga is a 7 footer with 6 fouls to work with.
As far as bigs go, the Lakers are beyond set.
There were games where Kwame would absolutly blew the game with turnovers and missed easy shots.
While on offense, Kwame was the worst fit for the Triangle... he never moved.... it was 4v5 when the lakers where on offense...
Now they got Rid of thier worst player, and added one of the best in the leauge...
Even if they would have striaght out cut Kwame they would have better... they can be good for Years now...
i agree with anonymus. kwame was ok coming off the bench and he's a good defender. believe it or not, if he takes a low salary next season, i think he'll make his way onto a contender in the west in order to defend duncan, yao, stoudamire, and or possibly bynum.
odom's one of my favorite players in the league, but i'm not sure if he's going to be on the lakers after this season. his contract makes him more likely to be the next to go, especially since walton would probably not have a problem taking his place in the starting lineup. i really don't want O' to leave the Lakers however, the only way I would understand it is if they traded him and someone else for ron artest and maybe a mikki moore type player to make the salaries match. artest and r'za defending the 3 would make them a scary team.
They (meaning TV) are projecting a starting 5 of Bynum, Gasol, Odom, Kobe, and Fisher. That's a great starting 5 when playing against bigger teams, and they have the interchangeability of shifting Odom to PF with Ariza or Walton as SF against smaller teams. That would allow for the Lakers to switch back and forth between Bynum and Gasol at center, and between Odom and Turiaf at PF. I dont see a need to trade Odom, or anyone for that matter, now.
Well, I am dumb enough to be possibly the only one to predict the Lakers would be in the top 4 in the West before the season started and dumb enough to suggest last year that Bynum was better than the names Kobe wanted to acquire. Think he's still mad they didn't trade Bynum for Jermaine O'Neal?
I didn't say Brown was the next Tim Duncan. However, he is a good defender on the block to go against a player like Tim Duncan. His problem is people's expectations. But, as a defender off the bench, he's a very good position defender and defends the pick and roll better than most post defenders.
I don't know why so many people act like I said the trade was a bad trade. I even clarified and said the Lakers won the trade. I said it was a great trade if Bynum does not return this year.
However, my contention is with the media who says now the Lakers are a contender. They already were a contender with a healthy Bynum. I thought they would beat the Suns last year in the play-offs, so I definitely would expect them to beat the Suns in a series this year, even before Gasol. San Antonio would be the only team I would have picked ahead of LA after watching them involve Bynum during the first half of the season. As I said during the pre-season, I thought Bynum was better than Oden and questioned why people made such a big deal about Oden but acted like Bynum was, well, Kwame Brown.
As for Memphis, this year is a pretty decent draft. The players slotted around where Grizz will pick should offer some decent selections. Not game changers, but rotation players.
The key, as I said, is how the Grizz use the cap space and picks. The Lakers won the trade, but everyone keeps dumping on the Grizz. But, sometimes a trade like this starts the rebuilding process and leads to a quicker turnaround. I thought the Grizz would be a play-off team this year, like 2 years ago, with a healthy Gasol. It didn't work, so now they can start over with some nice pieces and an opportunity to invest in a big piece, should they choose. If the Grizz sign Brand as Gasol's replacement, is this such a bad trade? The trade turns into Gasol for Brand, which is a pretty fair trade, especially since the Grizz also get 2 1st rounders, Marc Gasol and Crittendon. Everything depends on what the Grizz does next. Criticizing the deal now is short-sighted, just as it was when people criticized the Suns. The Suns obviously had a plan. The major question is whether the Grizz have a plan.
Sure the Grizzlies can use the cap space to bring in a big free agent but who would want to sign? It's true that Memphis has nice pieces in Gay and Miller but beyond that nothing much more. The fact that they play in the ridiculously tough West and a small market city makes matter even more difficult. At best the grizz will have a few solid starters and bunch of decent bench players. As for Crittendon, he'll develop into a good player but Memphis is already loaded at the position with Conley and Lowry.
As for the Lakers, Pau will probably turn out to be a perfect piece in the triangle offense. He can shoot the jumpers, provide some blocking, make beautiful passes, and get solid amount of boards. Plus, Pau is unselfish and has an extremely high basketball IQ to boot. Also, this trade makes Odom more expendable. He is a versatile player but his inconsistency is jsut downright frustrating. At times, he'll be unstoppable. At other times, he just disappears. But the best part about this is that if they choose not to trade Odom, Pau will give the Lakers so many possibilities. A line-up of Fish, Kobe, Odom, Pau, Bynum is championship material. If it doesn't work out Odom can come off the bench just like Manu.
The Lakers will reach the finals this year. Of course, all this depends on how well Pau can gel with his new teammates but I'm pretty confident that he will love the bright spotlight in LA as Kobe's sidekick.
Brian, I just think your giving Kwame waaaay to much credit, even as a low-post defender. As an L.A. resident, its downright hard to watch him on the floor, and it has nothing to do with the fact that he was drafted no. 1. In fact, the only expectation we all had was maybe he was worth the Caron Butler deal, which he wasn't by any means. The only thing we saw when he was on the floor was the inability to catch the ball and poor decision making when he did have it, often resulting in the plethora of turnovers in the 3rd Phoenix game. We saw a PROFESSIONAL ATHLETE fumbling the ball on a daily basis. Even as a defender, he had way too many mental lapses, often being too slow to help from the weak side. Also, even if Bynum does return this year, its a great trade. You are underestimating Gasol's ability to fit in the triangle, and his jumper and quick feet fits in the high-post area, as well as his low-post game for when he plays center and Andrew is out. I don't see how everyone is dumping on Memphis, because the cost-cutting makes plenty of sense to everyone, and they made it pretty clear their not considering keeping Kwame, for the amount hes making at least. Those who are in any way in tune with the sports world have made it known they understand why Memphis would make such a move.
I feel like you agree with my post. I am not underestimating Gasol. I, however, make 2 points: (1) with Bynum, I felt they were a championship contender already, so the acquisition does not MAKE them a championship contender because THEY ALREADY WERE; (2) I don't think Gasol and Odom fit together LONG TERM. Right now, minus Bynum, it's great because the Lakers STILL have a chance to compete, which they did not without Bynum. However, when Bynum returns, my question is with Gasol and Odom together, which as I said, gives the Lakers the rest of the season to decide whether they want to keep Odom or keep Gasol. I don't see Odom as an answer at the 3. That's just me. And, fwiw, I love Turiaf as a back-up post too. In fact, I remember writing that LA had a great draft when they got Turiaf and Bynum together when most said it was a bad draft, especially after Turiaf's heart condition. That draft goes down as a franchise saver for the Lakers now. I also wrote about how good the Lakers would have been this year had they kept Butler instead of trading for Brown.
And, yes, cap space depends on who Memphis can sign. I already wrote that. And, yes, Crittendon duplicates what they have (although some have suggested he could be more effective as a combo guard, which means he duplicates Navarro) but that means they have another valuable trading piece. They can be major players this summer with trades and free agents, if they so choose. They have Conley, Miller, Gay and Milicic with Navarro off the bench. Add a PF who fits their style (Josh Smith? Michael Beasley?) and if Ivaroni can get them on track they could be much improved very quickly.
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