Bill Simmons Understands the Kings

Comedian Sports Writer Bill Simmons, a devout Celtics' fan and former LA Clipper season ticket holder understands the Sacramento Kings better, and writes it more succinctly, than any of the Kings' beat writers:

5:32: Looking disturbingly like Chris Mihm, Spencer Hawes goes 10th to the Kings. Now they have a young center who can't rebound or protect the rim, an aging center (Brad Miller) who can't rebound or protect the rim, a guy who started the biggest melee in NBA history (Ron Artest), the coach from "Hang Time" (Reggie Theus), tons of bad contracts, and owners (the Maloofs) who've made more reality-TV-show appearances than every other NBA owner combined. What a mess. O.J. Mayo should just buy a house in Sacramento now and get it over with.

NBA Draft Trades

Thus far, I have not seen a single person suggest Charlotte made a good deal when it traded Brandon Wright for Jason Richardson and Jamareo Davidson. I simply do not understand this. While I think it's a pretty good trade from Golden State's perspective, as the Warriors had a glut of guards with Pietrus, Ellis, Jackson, Azubuike, Jasikevicious and Belinelli, I think it is a great trade for the Bobcats who needed a scorer and a SG, regardless of whether they re-sign Gerald Wallace.

The Bobcats started Matt Carroll at SG last season and he is a free agent. The other options were Alan or Derek Anderson. Richardson is now the Bobcats best player, and the Felton-Richardson back court is a legitimate, play-off-caliber back court. The front court still has Jamareo Davidson, Sean May, Walter Hermann, Primoc Brezec and Emeka Okafur. And Adam Morrison and Jared Dudley, presumably, will be the SF's, unless they manage to re-sign Wallace.

I believe the trade improved the Bobcats more than Brandon Wright's selection alone. Wright is a project with talent many people like, but also a questionable work ethic. There is very little questionable about Richardson's 20+ PPG. I just don't understand the criticism of the Bobcats. Am I missing something?

Also, everyone thought the Suns would make some moves to improve. Instead, thus far, they sold the #24 pick, traded James Jones, possibly for more cash and a trade exception, and drafted Alando Tucker, an undersized SF who is not a great three-point shooter, meaning I don't understand how he fits. DJ Strawberry was a solid pick at #59, but, so far, I don't understand the moves the Suns have made. Tucker, right now, is not as good as James Jones, especially in the Suns' system, and Strawberry is not likely to make an impact, if he even makes the team. So, I'm confused.

The NBA Draft

I got home in time for the Charlotte Bobcats pick. Jay Bilas just compared Wright to Chris Bosh. Maybe I did not see Wright play enough or maybe he had a bad game when I saw the Tarheels. But, I'm just not sold. I thought Bosh was as good as Anthony when he was drafted. I just don't see Wright as a "steal" at #8. He has range to four feet, is skinny, wouldn't compete against anyone in pre-draft workouts and the best comment people have so far is that he is 19 years old.

Now, I was skeptical on Tyrus Thomas at #2 last year (big Brandon Roy fan), and it looks like Thomas will end up being a productive player. So, maybe I'm wrong on Wright as well, though I think Thomas is a better player and prospect than Wright.

As a Kings fan, we are looking at Hawes or Noah right now, so that's probably best case scenario at #10 for the Kings.

Damn. I wanted Noah. I won't lie. Will Petrie go for Hawes? Thorton? Stuckey? I like Hawes skill set, but I'm not 100% sold on Hawes for the Kings. How do Hawes and Miller fit together?

Well, I guess we'll find out, as the Kings just selected Hawes. I like the pick, but I hope there are more moves for the Kings, as I don't know how Hawes improves the Kings next season or fits with Theus' up-tempo style. At #10, I think Hawes is a solid pick, and fits with the Kings, though he duplicates Miller in some respects, though he is a better low post player than Miller.

Wow. Hawes love political debates. So glad I am watching the draft live to get this type of information. Not sure who on the Kings will engage him in a political debate, however, but maybe he'll spend his summers interning at the capitol.

Is Thaddeus Young a left-handed Martell Webster? Jay Bilas keeps vacillating. At one point, he said basketball was still a game of skill. However, he seems to question every pick if the player is not an A+ athlete.

Wow!!! I have Nick Young as one of the top 5 players in the draft and he is still available. Seriously? Julian Wright and Thaddeus Young? I just don't see it. Obviously, USC was not on television enough. What are the Clippers thinking? A hometown with an ability to score at the NBA level? Detroit is in the driver's seat. First, if they get Young to back-up Hamilton, that is an absolute steal. They also have Rodney Stuckey, who the Pistons reportedly like. Or, they could deal the pick to someone who wants Young. Boston reportedly liked Young; Charlotte reportedly liked him; how good would he be with James in Cleveland? If Young falls one more pick, to Washington, Gilbert Arenas can teach him all about playing with a chip on your shoulder and destroying teams who passed on you. Arenas and Young in the back court? Wow.

The Warriors draft a guard? I thought they needed a post player? I think every mock draft had the Warriors taking a big guy to fill a need. But, this is a brilliant pick. A proven, athletic scorer on the wing for a team who thrives on athletic, scoring wings. If you're going to play small, you need multiple, talented "small" players. Adding Belinelli is a smart pick.

I don't understand Portland's urgency to trade Zach Randolph. Randolph and Oden, to me, are a great complimentary pair: one is a great scorer and the other a great defender. Channing Frye may be a nice option as a back-up high post player for the Trailblazers, but with raised expectations, now there is a great deal more pressure on Oden, as now he has to be a scorer too.

Why is Dick Vitale on the NBA Draft coverage? I watch the NBA to avoid Vitale.

Phoenix sold another pick?

Rudy Fernandez and Sergio Rodriguez in the back court together in Portland? I really wish they had taken Durant. They would instantly be the most exciting team in the league. Fernandez, Roy, Rodrigiuez, Durant, Aldridge: just awesome.

I am now a Trailblazers fan, even with the Oden selection and Randolph trade. They'll be fun for years. However, how do Rodriguez and Fernandez fit within McMillan's system? That will be interesting. This is a team made to run, not to walk the ball up the court and rely on defense. Oden dominating the glass with Aldridge, who can fly, Roy, Fernandez, Webster, Jack and Rodriguez running the court. Exciting.

I knew Afflalo would not get past the Jazz, Pistons and Spurs at the end of the 1st Round. Great pick for the Pistons and a perfect complimentary piece as a back-up for Rip Hamilton. Nice draft for the Pistons; I was a little surprised they did not go for Tiago Splitter here, but Stuckey and Afflalo give the Pistons youth and depth in the back court.

Splitter is a solid pick for the Spurs, as always, though Derrick Byars would have been a nice addition to the perimeter as well.

Who do the Sonics expect to get for Rashard Lewis in a sign-and-trade? I mean, you can't have Lewis, Durant and Green with Ridnour as your PG, Petro as your C, can you? Durant and Green are nice pieces, and maybe West is the answer as the PG, but I'm not sure the Sonics will be any better. However, everyone from Vitale to the bloggers love the Sonics draft.

Phoenix selects Alando Tucker? I don't understand that pick at all. I like Tucker, but not in the Suns' system. In December, people though Josh McRoberts would be a great pick for the Suns if Phoenix has Atlanta's lottery pick. Now, they pass on him at #29. That has to hurt McRoberts, as well as the Duke reputation. I like Derrick Byars over Tucker, but that's just me. And, what happened to the Finnish kid (Petteri Kopponen) Phoenix supposedly wanted? Or, another PG like Taurean Green or Ramon Sessions?

In thinking about the Randolph deal, and seeing how disappointed David Lee looked when he realized he will not be starting next year, why did the Blazers take Frye over Lee? I like Frye. But, I really like the way Lee plays and would rather have Lee, if I'm the Blazers. Just wondering if Portland sought Lee, or if Frye was their guy all along.

2nd Round
Sonics select Carl Landry. Really? Derrick Byars, anyone?

Jason Richardson for Brandon Wright? What, Stephen A Smith doesn't like it. Calls it stupid. That would be an absolute steal for the Bobcats. Nobody else likes the deal. I think it is a great move for the Bobcats. Earlier, the pundits wanted to know if the Bobcats would spend some money. Now, they make a deal to trade a project for a borderline all-star and nobody thinks its a good deal? I'm confused. These guys obviously have not read my article on potential. The espn guys appear blinded by "upside."

Holy cow the Trailblazers have been busy. They just added Kopponen and drafted McRoberts. They now have McRoberts, Aldridge and Frye at PF, which is interesting. They also have Joel Freeland playing in Spain. I like McRoberts' value, but what about Byars? Who plays SF for the Blazers? Is Webster the answer? Udoka? Outlaw? They certainly have amassed a lot of young pieces and should have one eye on Europe all season too, assuming Fernandez plays out his contract in Spain, Kopponen moves to the EuroLeague to improve and Freeland stays in Spain. Interesting to see what they do with Joel Pryzbilla and Darius Miles' contract.

Charlotte got Jamareo Davidson along with Richardson? A great trade for Charlotte. Is Wright definitely a ton better than Davidson? They are similarly sized with similar length. Again, the difference is that Wright is younger. And, Charlotte gets a borderline all-star. Great deal for Charlotte. Golden State now adds Wright to Patrick O'Bryant as potential bigs and athletes to play in its system. Wright should fit in as well in Golden State as anywhere else, so it's a great trade from his standpoint. The Bobcats just went from starting Matt Carroll at SG to Jason Richardson and did not lose anyone from its rotation. That's a great deal. Maybe Gerald Wallace will want to stay and play alongside Richardson; if not, Jared Dudley is reading to compete with Adam Morrison for playing time at the SF position and the Bobcats still have Sean May, Primoz Brezec, Walter Hermann and Emeka Okafur inside. They also have a long, athletic seven-footer with "upside" in last year's second-rounder Ryan Hollins. Again, I cannot believe everyone apparently believes this is a bad deal for Charlotte. I think it's a steal, though it's a good fit and deal for Golden State, too.

I love the Lasme pick in the 2nd Round for the Warriors. With Richardson gone, the Warriors need to re-sign Barnes, or even make a run at Gerald Wallace (irony) as he would fit well with the Warriors system playing along with Pietrus, Jackson, Ellis and Belinelli on the wing.

The Kings' Draft

Over the last three years, I'm batting a thousand predicting the Sacramento Kings' draft picks. While the Bee had never heard of Kevin Martin, I gave my friends the scoop on the morning of the draft that he was the most likely pick. Similarly, Francisco Garcia was an easy pick to guess, as was Quincy Douby last year.

This year, the Kings pick 10th. One would think that with an earlier pick, it would be easier to predict the Kings' pick, as many of the variables would be gone (for instance, I said that if Channing Frye was available when the Kings pick, he would be the choice over Garcia); Frye was picked about 12 picks before the Kings selected Garcia.

While the draft has had many, many trade rumors, creating a seemingly endless number of potential variables, the top 10 players appear to be set: Greg Oden, Kevin Durant, Al Horford, Michael Conley Jr, Yi Jianlian, Jeff Green, Corey Brewer, Joakim Noah, Brandon Wright and Spencer Hawes.

Therefore, I imagine the Kings select the player who drops to #10. Many mock drafts have the Kings taking Yi or Hawes. I don't believe either will drop to #10, unless there is a surprise pick. I think the three most likely players to fall to the Kings will be Noah, Green and Wright. Of course, trades may change the shape of the draft.

The Kings' pick, I think, will be determined by Minnesota's selection at #7, barring any major deals. Horford will not fall past #4; Conley should not fall past #6; Yi will not fall past Chicago; and Brewer should not fall beyond #8. Minnesota's selection is the question mark. Do they take Jeff Green, Spencer Hawes, Brandon Wright or Joakim Noah? The only way the Kings end up with Yi or Hawes is if the Twolves select Wright or Noah with their pick, the Celtics draft Jeff Green and Golden State in unable to move into the lottery to draft Yi. If those three things occur, the Bulls take Yi and the Kings likely draft Hawes.

If the draft plays out as expected, I believe the Kings will get either Noah, who was the projected #1 pick last year, or Wright, who was thought of as the #3 talent in the draft a week ago. Of the two, I prefer Noah.

The wild card pick, however, is Rodney Stuckey. I know he does not make as much sense, as the Kings appear to be set in the back court with Bibby, Martin, Garcia, Salmons and Douby, but he seems to make a lot of sense for Sacramento, either as the combo guard off the bench, or, if Bibby is traded, as the PG.

Of course, the possible trades and the new coaching staff create more variables this year than in past years. However, if the Kings intend to play a similar style, they do not require a traditional, John Stockton-like PG, and instead could use a versatile back court performer like Stuckey.

However, if an Artest trade is imminent, the staff may be hoping Jeff Green falls to the #10 spot or may look at Al Thorton. However, I imagine the Kings take the consensus top 10 player who falls to them.

Potential and the NBA Draft

Last year, I wrote an article titled, "Potential is a Dangerous Word as NBA Draft Approaches." I said:

While it’s obvious Curry, Brown and Tskitishvili possess the physical attributes one needs to succeed in professional basketball, it is likely they do not possess the more important mental attributes and talents. One common basketball adage is that you cannot teach height. However, according to Buckingham’s research, you cannot teach competitiveness, focus, discipline or other talents that Ericsson would argue are equally, if not more important to one’s success.

I have Kevin Durant #1 in my mock draft because of the other attributes which Buckingham suggests you cannot teach. But, this applied to other players as well.

One of the biggest mysteries of this draft, to me, is why the pundits believe University of North Carolina's Brandon Wright is the #3 player. Sure, he has "potential" and "upside," but there is no way I'd pass on Florida's Al Horford, Corey Brewer or Joakim Noah to draft Wright.

Here is an excerpt of an Andy Katz article about the three Gators:

Al Horford gets the NBA and the draft process. So, too, do his lottery-bound Florida teammates, Joakim Noah and Corey Brewer. "We feel it's important to come out here and show our faces and play and show them that we want to work hard and be the best players we can in the league," Horford said.

"They all have high character, and it stands out," said Celtics coach Doc Rivers. "Their swagger stands out. They're not cocky but confident. Some say Noah is cocky, but it's in a good way. I loved it. They were all extremely competitive.

"To me, what stands out is that they're all so skilled, all three of them. Noah is extremely skilled, a great passer and has a great IQ. All three of them are smart players, and you can see why they won. They are three of the smartest players on your team if you were to have them.

Similarly, I think Jeff Green and Nick Young are undervalued. I am a big Michael Conley fan, but I think those are my top seven: Durant, Oden, Horford, Brewer, Noah, Green and Young. They might not have the upside of a Wright or even a Josh McRoberts, but when people question your effort, as Chad Ford does with Wright:

After Greg Oden and Kevin Durant, no other big man in the draft has as much upside. But does he have the drive to live up to it?

I see that as a sign to draft another player, which is why I have moved Noah ahead of Wright in my personal mock draft.

Beyond the top of the draft, I see similar issues with players like Arron Afflalo and Jared Dudley. What more do these guys have to prove? Afflalo is a First-Team All-American and tenacious defender; Dudley is simply a hard-nosed baller. These guys should be in the teens, yet most mock drafts have them in the second round. Sure, Thaddeus Young has great potential, but are you sure he is going to be a superstar? Are you sure he will be a better pro than Dudley?

Drafting talent is important. And, Young has athletic talent which is hard to find. But, Dudley has the intangibles to be successful, which is also a talent that is hard to find. While this is a deep draft with a lot of good players, I just don't see how Afflalo and Dudley can slip too far with the intangibles and talent they bring to the table. Unfortunately for some franchise, its GM will be enthralled by potential and upside and ignore more important attributes like competitiveness, desire, work ethic, etc. And, some successful franchise like the Pistons or Spurs will be the beneficiary.

My Lakers/Bulls Trade

The Kobe Bryant to the Bulls rumors are swirling. I have not seen actual names, but, if I am the Lakers, any deal starts with Luol Deng. I'm thinking Bryant and disgruntled PF Brian Cook (unless he has already been dealt for Luther Head, as one rumor suggested this morning) to the Bulls for Luol Deng, Kirk Hinrich and the #9 pick.

Chicago pairs Bryant with Ben Gordon in an explosive back court. With a re-signed Andres Nocioni and developing Thabo Sefolosha and Tyrus Thomas, the Bulls have enough to win the Eastern Conference.

Los Angeles gets Hinrich, a perfect Phil Jackson PG to plug into the Triangle with Lamar Odom, Andrew Bynum and Luol Deng. With the #9 pick, they draft USC's Nick Young, a hometown kid with huge, Dwyane Wade-like upside. With the #20 pick, they add a PF like Josh McRoberts or Jason Smith or a swingman like Derrick Byars.

I think the Lakers would be competitive in the Western Conference with a line-up like:
PG Kirk Hinrich
SG: Nick Young
SF: Luol Deng
PF: Lamar Odom
C: Andrew Bynum

with PG Jordan Farmar, SG Derrick Byars, SF Maurice Evans, PF Ronnie Turiaf and C Kwame Brown off the bench.

That is a young, competitive team with a lot of versatility. If the Lakers do deal Bryant, they have to get good value and few, if any teams could offer a more attractive package than a PG perfect for the Head Coach's system, an emerging All-Star at SF and a lottery pick. I just don't think the Bulls would make the deal.

Great Ball Handling Made Easy

Cross Over's Second Edition Now Available

The Second Edition is finally available via lulu.

Cross Over: The New Model of Youth Basketball Development answers questions on the state of basketball in the United States; describes problems with 21st Century phenomenon such as early specialization and loss of free play; and outlines a solution in the form of a stage-by-stage long term development process which re-focuses attention on the journey through youth basketball not the six-figure destination which currently shapes the development system.

Published in June 2007, the Second Edition adds two brand new chapters, two completely re-written chapters, several interviews and pictures to the popular First Edition. The Second Edition includes over 125 drills divided into the four-stage model.

The most important chapter in the book, imo, is the new Chapter 4, "The Psychology of Talent Development," and the interview with Jerome Green from Hoop Masters adds great information as well.

Carlesimo to the Kings

The NBA is a copycat league, so why aren't more NBA teams stalking PJ Carlesimo? Marc Ivaroni, Stan Van Gundy, Sam Vincent, Jim O'Brien, etc. Some good coaches and some potentially good coaches. However, why not Carlesimo? He has head coaching experience and he's been a part of several NBA championship teams, including the 2007 NBA Champions. Is there an NBA assistant coach with a better resume?

Originally, I favored Reggie Theus for the Kings' job because he's one of the few former players who worked his way to the NBA level like a regular coach, from AAU to college assistant to college head coach (I like that Vincent got a chance, too, as he once was an owner and head coach in the former professional league in South Africa).

However, why not Carlesimo? The Bee is still bitter that Stan Van Gundy chose the Magic over the Kings. But, Carlesimo is more experienced and is a part of the best organization in sports.

I hope PJ has time on his post-celebration schedule Friday morning to take a quick trip to Vegas to meet the Maloofs and get this done. I hope this is why the Kings have been waiting so long to hire a coach: to get the right one.

Fixing the NBA

According to the blogosphere, the NBA needs fixing because the Spurs are too good for the Cavs and more people are interested in the Durant vs. Oden debate. Bill Simmons tackled the subject today for espn.com, as others have recently. The concern started when several teams apparently "tanked" to have a better chance to draft Oden or Durant (oops).

Anyway, earlier this year I wrote on the subject, arguing for a change to the NBA which would shorten the season and create a more competitive schedule throughout the year, eliminating the tanking and the meaningless end of the season games, as well as the unbalanced play-offs.

Fixing the NBA the European Way

Finals Free Throw Shooting

Some ideas to improve free throw shooting in the finals...

Artest Trade Possibilities

I saw this on Hoopshype and almost fell out of my chair:

We also heard that New York's Isiah Thomas is interested in Ron Artest, but so is Miami, and the Heat have parts of a prospective deal (James Posey and Michael Doleac) to pique the Kings' interest. Arizona Republic

What? Why would the Kings want Michael Doleac when Brad Miller continues to illustrate his ineffectiveness and why would the Kings want Posey, who plays the same position and role as arguably the Kings two best returning players, Francisco Garcia and Kevin Martin?

The Kings need an athletic big man. If he is not included, any trade better provide serious cap relief (which may be the reason for Doleac and Posey, though Posey is a free agent, I believe, and I did not think a free agent could be traded unless it was a sign-and-trade, which would mean he is no longer a free agent).

The Kings have problems, definitely. But, Artest is still a productive player, even if he feuds with Mike Bibby, and the Kings have to acquire a starter or a high draft pick in return, if he or Bibby is dealt.

I'd rather have Randolph Morris than Doleac.

The Maloofs Messing with the Management

On this blog, I often criticize the Maloofs for over-stepping their bounds and trying to make basketball decisions. I am shocked Geoff Petrie is still working in Sacramento, as I figured he would have had enough when he had his hands tied when trying to make a trade with the Lakers earlier this year after jumping the gun on Mussleman, firing his friend Rick Adelman and putting his legacy on the line with Artest.

But, it appears he has his coach in mind, through the Maloofs disagree:

Once again, GEOFF PETRIE is showing good sense in pushing hard for TERRY PORTER to take over in Sacramento, and once again, the goofball owners who ruined the team a year ago -- by forcing out RICK ADELMAN and hiring ERIC MUSSELMANN despite Petrie's objections -- are not listening to their GM. Typical. We don't expect the Maloofs to know this, because they're usually too busy hanging around the gold-plated hot tubs of Vegas filming softcore-porn reality TV shows, when they aren't holding up their taxpayers to build a $450 million arena. But Porter did a great job in Milwaukee, making the playoffs his first year, turning MICHAEL REDD into a star, then getting dumped after an absurd string of injuries (notably, T.J. FORD'S spinal surgery) and the turmoil of having eight free agents on his roster dropped him to 30-52 in his second. He is going to be a great -- not good -- head coach someday.

Terry Porter. He wasn't my first choice, but he's higher on my list than Van Gundy, Brooks, Rambis or the others. I would like to see the Kings talk to PJ Carlesimo before making a decision, even if they go elsewhere, because I'm not sure there is anyone in the league who has earned the opportunity more than Carlesimo. But, while I still like Reggie Theus, because he earned his coaching the job the hard way and moved up from coaching AAU to college basketball, Porter would be a good choice as well. However, I still don't understand why Keith Smart isn't in the running, especially since Sacramento has a sudden love affair with Don Nelson and Nelson proclaimed Smart his heir apparent.

Regardless of the choice, I hope Petrie makes the hire, not some casino owners.

R.C. Buford

On True Hoop, Henry Abbott linked to an article on slate about R.C. Buford. Nice of the paid media to join the party. I wrote a similar article in 2005:

Mr. Management

I'm sure I was not the first, or even the best, look at Buford. However, I tire of reading these links from the paid media covering concepts and stories that are old news. Shouldn't people who get paid as journalists be on the leading edge as opposed to the bloggers who do this as a hobby? If not, have paid journalists outlived their usefulness?

NBA Draft Process

Beyond my NBA Mock Draft from two weeks ago, I've written two articles on the NBA Draft proces for my other blog:

The NBA Draft Process Negatively Impacting Youth Training

Passing the NBA Tests Does not Lead to Automatic Success