Talent Wins

Everyone is rushing to judgement. With Chicago, Golden State and Phoenix looking good right now, everyone is jumping on the "small ball" bandwagon. However, everyone is overlooking a simple point: Talent wins.

The NBA, like most enterprises, is a copycat league. When MJ dominated the League, everyone wanted his own MJ & Pippen combination. Because nobody could stop him, teams tried to come up with ways to beat him, leading to the Pistons' "Jordan Rules" and the Knicks' notoriously thuggish style of basketball.

When MJ retired, Shaq became the dominant player in the league. Teams preoccupied themselves with trying to find their own Shaq (impossible) or ways to beat Shaq. Which is where we are today: the best way to beat Shaq is not to try and play his game, but to force him to play outside his comfort zone. The Kings almost beat the Shaq-led Lakers with its high post-oriented attack. However, now it's teams with quickness who can put him in a pick-and-roll situation and make his size work against him.

The Pistons over the last several years, and the Spurs to a lesser extent, have provided an alternate blueprint: they played five strong players and actually attempted to outduel superstars with a team effort. And today's "small ball" revolution builds from the Pistons (and Spurs) success.

The Pistons won with defense, with the Wallaces, Billups and Prince, so people suggested that defense won championships and was the way to go. Coaches were fired because they did not play stifling defense as owners and GMs wanted to replicate the Pistons' blueprint because finding an MJ, Shaq, Duncan or Hakeem is much more difficult.

But, these teams looked at the problem wrong. The Pistons won with defense because they had four great defensive players. Their scheme fit their personnel and they played their best players together. It just so happened that their five best players resembled a traditional line-up: PG, SG, SF, PF, C, even though most considered Billups more of a shooting guard before he landed in Detroit and neither Wallace is a "traditional" center. But, when looking at their size, they fit a traditional model. However, they won because they played their five best players in a system that fit their personnel.

Now, The Suns, Warriors and Bulls do the same thing. However, their line-ups do not look traditional, so it appears they are doing something new and revolutionary. In truth, the "small ball" revolution is simply the realization that it's easier to find talented players who are 6'6 rather than 6'10 and playing their talented players rather than untalented players who happen to be tall.

The Warriors could start a traditional starting line-up, with a 6'2 PG (Davis), a 6'6 SG (Richardson), a 6'8 SF (Harrington), a 6'10 PF (Biedrins) and a 7'0 C (Foyle). But, they'd suck. Instead, Nelson is unafraid to start his five best players and play his top eight, even though he plays only player over 6'8. Waht looks like a study in small ball success is merely the realization that talent wins games and a team is better off with five talented players than five properly sized players. The same is true of the Suns. The Suns could move Marion to the SF, Stoudemire to the PF and Thomas to C in its starting line-up and play a traditional line-up; heck, they could play the same style with that line-up. But, instead, they start a smaller line-up and play most of the game with their five best players on the floor: Nash, Barbosa, Bell, Marion and Stoudemire. The Bulls do the same thing, though their line-up looks a bit more traditional. But, they start a 6'2 and under back court, too small people say, because Gordon and Hinrich are the top two guards.

In addition to playing with their best players, not just the most appropriate line-ups, these coaches play systems which fit the personnel. The Warriors play ana ctive match-up zone, swich defenses, trap, etc. They are horribly unfundamental defensively at times, yet look brilliant as well. The Bulls, Suns and Warriors rely heavily on dribble penetration to score: they do with the bounce fromthe perimeter what the Spurs and Heat hope to do by going through Duncan and Shaq. It's the same basic premise: break down the defense, force rotations and scrambling and find the open man for a shot. However, they use the personnel they have available rather than trying to force something that isn't there.

And, I love it. Not beacause I only like watching teams who jack 30 3's a game, like the Warriors. But, because I enjoy teams utilizing their strengths and creating attacks based on what they have available rather than complaining about limitations. The Maloofs fired Adelman because he did not coach more like Larry Brown, Jeff Van Gundy or Rick Carlisle. But, he did not have the same personnel either. Adelman tried to create a style using his best talents, but the Maloofs wanted the Kings to look like other teams. And, it backfired.

The NBA is a copycat league. Hopefully, coaches will not simply copy the Suns or the Warriors' attack, but their philosophy. Play the best players, regardless of size or position, and develop a system of play to maximize those talents. It's not about "small ball" or "defense wins" or anything else, except maximizing talent and executing your style of play.

PGs, UCLA and NBA Head Coaches

I have yet to write anything since Eric Mussleman was fired. I am dismayed that nobody has blamed the Maloofs for the downward spiral of the Kings. But, I am moving on. If the media cannot grasp the obvious, so be it.

I was all set to write a big blog on candidates Saturday morning, with my two secret candidates I had yet to see mentioned, but Scott Howard-Cooper included Reggie Theus in his list, which stole my thunder. I still like Theus as a candidate, provided he hires an older, Del Harris-like assistant coach. My other "surprise" candidate, who nobody has mentioned, is former Sacramento King Kenny Smith. Sure, he has no coaching experience. But, look where preparedness got Mussleman! I mean, he's been coaching for half his life. Smith knows basketball and gets paid to know basketball. Plus, he's from NYC and might have a bond with Douby, Garcia and most importantly Artest. Because, if Artest stays, the #1 attribute of the next coach might be his ability to maximize Artest's talent, because, for good or bad, the succes of the Kings now is dependent on the players acquired in a trade for Artest, or Artest himself.

Another candidate who nobody has mentioned is Tom Thibodeau of the Houston Rockets. Now, if the Kings want an assistant coach, I am partial to Marc Ivaroni because I want the Kings to be an entertaining, up tempo team becasue I don't see them winning a championship anytime soon. If they couldn't win in 2002 or 2003, they don't stand a chance now, as they were much, much better back then. But, if management decides it has to hire a defensive-minded coach, and does not want to go for a coach like soon to be fired Rick Carlisle (personally not a big fan, though he's probably a good coach), Thibodeau has been involved with great defensive teams over the course of his career. I'm not saying he's my choice; I'm just throwing his name into the large pool of candidates. I'd also like to add Denver Nuggets Assistant Coach Mike Dunlap, a former professional coach in Australia and National Champion at Metro State who has California ties. I think he'll get a job in the next couple years and I like the varied experience, but worry about the Artest factor. Finally, since Ailene Voison is ga-ga over Don Nelson right now, what about his self-proclaimed successor with the Warriors, Keith Smart? I don't know if he coach, but he can definitely teach the Kings something about being clutch.

A lot is being written in Southern California about high school stars not wanting to go to UCLA because Ben Howland's style hurts their NBA chances. Interesting. The only rookie currently starting for a play-off team is Jordan Farmar, a UCLA product. Further, UCLA is the only university to have two starting PGs in the play-offs (Baron Davis). But, I guess the "advisors" in the recruits ears know what they are talking about...

I'm just thinking out loud here, but Arron Afflalo seems like a perfect fit for the Utah Jazz. I know there will be sexier picks available, guys with more upside, but Afflalo fits the Jazz system and the way they play. They have a couple "upside" guys in CJ Miles and Ronnie Brewer. Maybe the Jazz know next year is when their "upside" will be realized, so they can make a sexier pick or look for a bigger wing to play the small forward position behind (instead of) Kirilenko. However, if they are not certain about Miles and/or Brewer, Afflalo makes a lot of sense, even though nobody currently has him being taken in the 1st round. If he falls to the Pistons, I think he makes a lot of sense there too in their system, as UCLA runs a lot of similar sets and uses AA a lot like the Pistons/Jazz use their SGs.

Back to the Kings: I am on record as calling the Chris Webber trade the "worst trade ever" (and I didn't even like Webber). I argued that it was a terrible trade because the Kings received almost no cap relief. It also signaled the end of an era in Sacramento.

However, looking at the trade now, I think it's even worse. Sure, Corliss Williamson comes off the books this summer, though he was the best player acquired in the deal. And, Brian Skinner was sbsequently dealt for Vitaly Potapenko and Sergei Monia who are both off the books this summer, leaving only Kenny Thomas' eight million plus for the next couple years.

But, if you look at the deal, right now, the two best players in the trade are Chris Webber and Matt Barnes, which, I called at the time when I wrote:

While I'm a UCLA-homer, Matt Barnes might be the second best player in the trade because of his versatility, passing ability and outside shooting ability.

And, the trade propelled the Kings to sign Shareef Abdur-Rahim and his bad knees and he has several more years, though at a fairly reasonable contract.

So, would the Kings be better heading into next year with Webber/Barnes or Thomas/SAR? I think I'd argue for Webber/Barnes. In hindsight, I think the better move would have been to trade Brad Miller at the height of his value and acquire a nice piece to add to the puzzle and move Webber to center where he could defend a little better. Because, depending on the new coach's system, I believe Miller's best days are behind him, as his value is dependent upon being used as an outside shooter and playmaker, and how many coaches run systems using a 6'11 C as their playmaker and three-point shooter? Plus, plantar fasciitis is a tough injury to overcome. But, in hindsight, Webber, Barnes and a piece from a Miller deal would be a better option than the 27 million dollars plus the Kings have inveted in Thomas, SAR and Miller over each of the next three years.

Shoes for South Africa

Watching the documentary from Brazil made me think of my time in South Africa. Leandro's coach reminds me of my friends Craig Daniels and Thierry Kita in Cape Town. However, the situation in South Africa is probably worse than in Brazil; Daniels runs his program, the Montana Vikings, at his school on outdoor courts. I remember running a practice for his semi-professional team in the rain at night with only one light illuminating the court.

Yesterday, during the Jazz broadcast, Bill Walton spoke of the enormous financial stake the NBA is investing in the Chinese Basketball Association. China already has a professional league. As much as the NBA touts its "NBA Cares" program, why not invest in a professional league in Africa, where none exist? Nike, adidas, Reebok and others swarm China, throwing money at programs and advertising because of the billion people and burgeoning economy. But, what about Africa? There is as much or more potential in Africa as there is in China; however, Africa lacks the resources to develop the talent.

I found this clip on youtube about my friend Mark Crandall's program, Hoops4Hope.




I remember watching a holiday basketball tournament being played on an outdoor court. There were several teams of young girls, maybe 12 years old. One team had two pairs of flip-flops for the entire team. Everyone else played barefoot. The girls played with the flip-flops for a couple minutes and rotated. And, it was hot on the asphalt.

At another clinic, I did a shooting clinic for about 30 kids with only one ball. If you look closely, the kids in the back are barefoot. They walked to the gym as well.


When I was in South Africa, the top young player was selected to go to the South African Sports Institute. They take 3 young athletes every year, and he was a rare basketball selection, as soccer, rugby, cricket and golf are more popular sports. He tested as malnourished. The Institute gave him a box of peanut butter and instructed him to put peanut butter on everything he ate. He went back to his Township and gave away all the peanut butter to friends and family who were going hungry. It's the African way.

I know everyone is fascinated with China, but I'd like to see the NBA in Brazil or Africa. If China can completely rebuild its infrastructure to support the 200 Olympics, it can support a professional sports league. Africa completely lacks the wherewithal to provide the resources and infrastructure for a professional league because of the wide spread social issues plaguing the continent. Basketball might not be the highest priority for the continent, but, look at the good one program like Hoops4Hope can do, or the impact one NBA player (Dikembe Mutombo) can have on his homeland.

NBA Play-offs Running Commentary

During the season, some in the media were starting to suggest that Chris Bosh is overrated. Since he is lost in Canada, I rarely see him play. However, how can a player who is a very good defensive power forward with deep jump shooting range be overrated? What do any of the top power forwards (Nowitski, KG, Stoudamire) do that Bosh does not? He's a better defender than Stoudamire or Nowitski, a better shooter than KG or Stoudamire and handles as well as any of the three.

Really, Doris Burke? It's bad enough when she does men's college games, but the NBA too? And, now she's trying to talk NFL Football? Doris, Chris Quinn is a basketball player and Brady Quinn is a football player. Stick to college basketball and hanging out with Dick Vitale.

I know TJ Ford has a great start to the game, but I still like Jose Calderon.

Why are coaches so scared to play a player with 2 fouls? And, what is Burke thinking? It's a three point game and Bosh goes to the bench and now it's a 10 point game at half time and Burke thinks taking Bosh out of the game is a good idea so he can play more aggressively at the start of the second half. Why? If he stays in the game, maybe the Raptors have the lead at half-time. Think that doesn't change the complexion of the game? Why do coaches/analysts assume a player cannot play 3:00 without picking up a foul?

Good thing Bosh didn't play those final 3:00 of the 2nd quarter so he could come out more aggressively! NJ's up 13 to end the third quarter and Bosh has only 3 fouls entering the 4th Quarter. On the positive, he should play the entire 4th Quarter since he's only played about 22 minutes so far.

Chicago vs. Miami
Is it too early to suggest Thabo Sefolosha is the biggest steal in the 2006 NBA Draft? Other teams, especially the Phoenix Suns wanted him, yet he was still drafted in double digits and he looks like one of the best rookies right now, and he probably has as much upside as almost anyone from the 2006 Draft. Sure, Paul Milsap and Craig Smith in the 2nd Rd were steals, but neither has the upside of Sefolosha who could take over for Bruce Bowen as the best perimeter defender when Bowen eventually retires.

I wrote about Ainge, McHale and Thomas this week; but, is Paxson the best evaluator of talent from the draft? Or, is he just the smartest, choosing to go with proven players, more often than not, as opposed to upside and potential? Luol Deng looks better and better every week (I had the thought earlier while eating: Is Deng the closest comparison to Kevin Durant? Everyone wants to compare him to other players, especially KG, but isn't Durant more like a taller, better shooting Deng? If so, that's scary enough, as Deng is about to become a perennial all-star). Look at the recent list of Paxson picks: Hinrich, Gordon, Deng, Duhon, Thomas, Sefolosha; it'shard to argue he missed on any of them, even if I do really like Brandon Roy.

Detroit v. Orlando
Seriously, Howard, 0 for 7 from the FT line? (3/11 for the game). The future of the game in the post cannot be a sub-50% FT shooter.

Utah v. Houston
I'm glad Bill Walton pointed out Utah's offensive efficiency. Traditionally, I'm not a fan of a lot of set plays and a coach-dominated team. However, when I saw Utah play in person, I was really impressed with their execution. In many ways, they are the best offensive team because they can score in transition or in the half-court and do not rely heavily on one player (Steve Nash).

And, Deron Williams is a personal favorite. I was really impressed whenw atching Chris Paul in person, as he is so quick with the ball and has great touch on his floaters in the lane. But, if I had to pick one for my team, I'd take Williams. I don't know why people think he is unathletic. And, he's great at both tempos and has a strong body.

When I was a kid, Utah was my favorite team. I wore a purple Jazz hat for years. And, I really like their team. They are a poor man's Detroit right now, like Detroit before they went to the Finals. But, like Detroit, they are a team without a true star who depends on toughness and efficiency. Deron Williams is a great Chauncey Billups clone, and Andrei Kirilenko is similar in length and defensive presence to Tayshaun Prince.

If Utah gets a little more length at the two, so it can move Derek Fisher to the bench as a 6th man, they will be a championship-caliber team with their size, efficiency and depth.

Leandro Barbosa's Coach: Prof. Carlao

I saw this video on Hoops Addict.com. It's worth reading the accompanying article. But, here is the video as well.

Thomas vs McHale

Okay, Thomas does it on a bigger stage, but why is Thomas universally criticized and McHale escapes national criticism even though he has wasted KG's career in Minnesota? Besides drafting Randy Foye (although it's a fair argument whether he should have kept Brandon Roy, but both appear to have bright futures in the L) and Craig Smith, when was the last time McHale made a good move?

Thomas is not exactly shrewd, but his ability to judge talent in the draft is pretty good, as Trevor Ariza, Channing Frye, David Lee, Renaldo Balkman and Mardy Collins (in the two weeks at least) have exceeded expectations.

Trading Nazr Mohammed for Malik Rose was a bad trade, but not catastrophic on the level of, say, Danny Ainge trading away Foye for Sebastian Telfair or McHale trading Sam Cassell and a 1st Rd pick for Marko Jaric. Signing Jared Jeffries and Jerome James were poor acquisitions, but were they any worse than Ainge's acquiring Dickau and Scalabrine or McHale butchering the Joe Smith signing?

Thomas is certainly no RC Buford or Joe Dumars; but, is he any worse than Ainge or McHale?

2006-07 NBA Season in Review (first of several? many?)

I am a sometime fan of the Chicago Bulls. I like any NBA team who plays three 6'2 guys at the same time as part of its regular rotation. I also like the strategy of drafting successful college players from winning programs, such a novel idea in today's NBA.

However, I disliked the Bewn Wallace signing and Tyson Chandler trade (I disliked it even more when the JR Smith trade happened, since, all along, Bulls' followers said the team needed a bigger wing as well as an interior scorer).

In December, people were jumping off the Bulls bandwagon and championing the KG trade. I did not panic. As I wrote:

Between the positive point differential, which suggests Chicago is playing better than its record illustrates, and the lack of home games thus far, Chicago is positioned nicely to contend, just as everyone believed they would.

In July, in response to the Wallace signing and the hoopla which surrounded it, I wrote:

As for the Bulls, they played the Heat as well as anyone in the Eastern Conference, so I am not sure how now they are contenders. With normal improvement from the young nucleus, one would have considered them as much a contender as anyone else in the East, even without Wallace. In addition to giving the Heat problems, they also added the #2 pick in the draft.

However, the Bulls entered the off-season with three needs: (1) interior offense; (2) veteran leadership; (3) length/size on the wing. So far, the Bulls have acquired three players (Wallace, Thomas and PJ Brown) which address only the leadership. Possibly Thabo Sefolosha or JR Smith [Oops] could be the missing piece on the wing, but neither is a sure thing. And, neither Wallace, Thomas nor Brown is going to provide interior scoring.

The experts sound as if the Bulls were one shot blocker away from a championship. Defense was not their problem. And, Tyson Chandler was an effective defensive player, rebounder and shot blocker. Chandler's problem was his inability to score. Now, the Bulls have a shorter, yet stronger Chandler who is 10 years older and even more expensive, and still have nobody to play PF who is a legit interior presence on the offensive end.

I followed up in December:

Is it shocking (1) that the Bulls are struggling to score inside and consistently or (2) that Tyson Chandler is outperforming Ben Wallace? No and no. The Bulls did nothing to strengthen its weaknesses and have basically the same team as last season, where they overachieved to win as many games as they did. Chandler is just reaching his peak (he's what, 24) while Wallace is already well past his prime and playing on his last, fat contract.

I also believed, since they signed Ben Wallace, they should have gone for it and acquired Pau Gasol. Is Ben Gordon going to get the Bulls to the NBA Finals?

I don't understand the Bulls. I am a Ben Gordon fan. I enjoy watching him play. However, in a year when the East is sooo mediocre, one deal could put the Bulls in the driver's seat. And, the Bulls appear reluctant to make the deal because of Gordon.

If the Bulls had a re-do, imagine if the Bulls kept Tyson Chandler, drafted Brandon Roy, not Tyrus Thomas; traded Gordon, Nocioni, and a 1st rd pick to Memphis for Gasol. Hinrich, Roy, Deng, Gasol, Chandler with Duhon, Sefolosha and Sweetney off the bench. That's a versatile, athletic team that's a little thin up front, but could spend a lot of time playing with Hinrich, Roy, Sefolosha, Deng and Chandler, which is a team that can defend with length, push the tempo and pass the ball. They'd be as exciting as any team in the NBA, except maybe the Suns, and would be better equiped to defeat the Pistons because they'd have a longer defender on Hamilton at all times (Roy/Sefolosha) and an interior scorer (Gasol). Oh well. As Bill Simmons wrote, regarding the Chandler/Wallace swap:

Just for the hell of it, and only because I'm so rarely right ...

• Tyson Chandler: 9.5 points, 12.4 rebounds, 1.8 blocks and 0.5 steals per game; 62.4 FG% and 52.7 FT%; $9.5 million cap figure; 24 years old.

• Ben Wallace: 6.4 points, 10.7 rebounds, 2.1 blocks and 1.5 steals per game; 45.3 FG% and 41.0 FT%; $16 million cap figure; 32 years old.

Tanking and the Skinny Sacramentans

A lot has been written lately about NBA teams tanking. I know. Incredible that players making five-figures per game could not play their absolute hardest every time they step on the floor.

However, I just left the Kings/Hornets game and it was he least competitive close game I have witnessed. It had all the intensity of a summer league game. It was entertaining at points and I have Chris Paul's devastating in-n-out engrained in my mind (I imagine John Salmons, Ron Artest and Mike Bibby), but there's something unsatisfying about a close game when it seems artificial because nobody seems concerned about the result (Of course, I also wondered aloud why Bibby waited until the first half of this game to play his best five minute stretch of the year).

But, earlier this year, I wrote an article which provided a solution to the end of the season tanking: an in-season cup championship with only the top 24 teams from the previous season.

While I watched the Kings tonight, I had a thought: Marcus Camby is apparently available. If the Kings rid themselves of Bibby, Artest and Miller, acquired Camby and drafted Joakim Noah, the KIngs could start te skinniest line-up in NBA history: PG Quincy Douby, SG Kevin Martin, SF Francisco Garcia, PF Noah, C Camby. Yes, it was that type of game.

State of Sacramento

Ailene Voisin has another column calling for Mussleman's firing. Last year, she wanted Peja traded, but then changed her mind. Then she wanted Adelman fired. Seriously, in a week last year, she went from writing that Corliss Williamson should get Peja's minutes to proclaiming that Peja should be the Kings' #1 option and Adelman should be fired. And, nobody said a word. Now, it seems like she wants Adelman back.

The problem is everyone thinks they can coach better than an NBA coach. Voisin seems to think she can do a better job. Personally, I think Voisin should be fired. Her columns flip-flop without explanation. She adds no insight into her columns about the Kings. I think the Bee could find a better writer to cover the Kings. Why not start with the guy who runs SacTown Royalty? Fire Voisin and hire him. He covers the Kings better than the Bee anyway.

Voisin starts by saying it's hard for her to call for someone's job. What? She's been doing this consistently for the past year. The only people she is afraid to criticize are the ones who deserve the criticism, the Maloof brothers. Because, if we want to pass blame for the state of the Kings, it starts at the top.

I intended to criticize Geoff Petrie, but I think his hands have been tied for at least a year or more. I will be shocked if Petrie does not leave in the off-season. I can't imagine he is okay with the moves the Kings have made.

Vade Divac leaving started the decline. However, the Chris Webber trade officially ended the era. As I wrote on several occasions, the Kings were a system team who out-performed the level of their talent. But, nobody realized this; instead, the perception of the individual players inflated. However, look at the players who have left the Kings over the years. Who has played better on another team? Peja? Webber? Bobby Jackson? Keon Clark? Doug Christie? Mo Evans? Darius Songalia? Brad Miller made Team USA: are you serious? Like putting an immobile center who cannot defend against the pick and roll is a good move in International basketball. Seriously, do people even watch the NBA anymore?

Petrie's genius in building the Kings was finding players who fit the system. This is why it was so easy to predict the Kings would draft Kevin Martin, Francisco Garcia and Quicy Douby when the Bee had no idea who these players were. They fit the Kings' style of play.

However, the Maloofs grew restless. After annointing the Peja-Bibby-Miller trifecta as the foundation of the organization and telling the world the Kings starting five (Bonzi Wells and Shareef Abdur-Rahim) was the best in the NBA, the Maloofs panicked after a slow start induced by injuries and new players. During the era, there was stability; after the Webber trade, the Kings were going through a change. And, the Maloofs lacked the patience to go through the brief growing pains.

Instead, they forced the Artest for Peja trade, which Sacramentans hailed as a giant win. But, nobody mentioned that Artest's acquisition coincided with a healthy Bonzi Wells and Shareef Abdur Rahim. People gave Artest all the credit, but, in reality, it had the effect of trading one starter who had been injured and getting three starters in return. Of course there was going to be improvement.

The Maloofs also forced the firing of Adelman. Thought Artest liked Adelman and this year's team would have much more continuity after the previous year's upheavel, the Maloofs again lacked patience, the virtue which allowed the Kings to build a winner in the first place.

Also, according to some media reports, the Maloofs squashed a proposed trade that would have sent Bibby to the Lakers because they did not want to help the Lakers. However, now the Kings are saddled with Bibby and his big contract, and the trade, depending on how early in the season, may have been for Andrew Bynum, which would have been an absolute steal and would have given the Kings the type of young, interior presence they have never had. But, that's what happens when owners allow personal feelings to make their business decisions.

So, the Maloofs wanted defense. And, they hired Mussleman. But, they did not change the personnel. So, a bad defensive team with Adelman and now with Mussleman is somehow the coach's fault? Maybe one should examine the roster:

Bibby is notorious for being one of the worst defenders at the point guard position. Through his career, SAR has been, statistically, one of the worst defenders at the PF position. And, Brad Miller is a terrible defender for the C position. So, somehow a coach is supposed to turn a team with three of the worst defenders at their positions into a good defensive team? Talk about asking for miracles. Now, add to the mix SAR's bad knees and Miller's plantar fascitiis, not to mention Artest's battles with the law, and this is Mussleman's fault?

I don't care if Mussleman stays or goes. I said at the time it was a bad hire. I did not think Adelman should have been fired. But, I simply want people to acknowledge that the owners and management need to share the blame. The Kings' fall from grace started with the owners, not the coaching.

Furthermore, everyone now loves Justin Williams. I wonder why he wasn't here all season, since he was in training camp with the Kings. Oh, that's right, the owners were too cheap to keep him. Teams are allowed to keep 15 players; the Kings only kept 13. The last two players cut were Williams and Louis Amundson, now of the 76ers, who was voted the NBDL rookie of the year. But, nobody has criticized the Maloofs for this. Nobody. Williams could have been on the roster all year. Same with Amundson. But, it's Mussleman's fault that he did not play Williams sooner?

Fire Mussleman. Or, keep him. Whatever. Just make sure that when the Bee writes its season wrap-up, it spreads the blame. It points out the flaws in the Maloof's decision-making. Mussleman made some mistakes. Sure. But, he's young. Last year, at this time, everyone was certain it was only a matter of days until Toronto fired its coach, Sam Mitchell. Now, Mitchell is a top contender for Coach of the Year. Did he go from terrible coach to great coach? No, he benefitted from an influx of talent: Bargnani, Ford, Parker, Garbajosa, Humphries. Bryan Colangelo gave him a team with similar strengths built to win and he went out and did the job. The Kings gave Mussleman a roster of mis-matching parts with differing strengths and a philosophy (defense) that did not mesh with the personnel and expected Mussleman to win. I do not see how that is Mussleman's fault. Sure, he could have done better or done things differently. That's easy to say when you're behind a computer. But, get down in front of 20,000 people and see if it's easy. Because, as soon as you tinker too much, NBA players complain that the coach won't settle on a line-up and he plays too many players (see Bill Simmons' complaints about Doc Rivers). You're damned if you do and damned if you don't, especially when you have a team whose owner's expectations do not align with the talent on the floor.

But, as long as Mussleman can be fired, I think Voisin should join him. Just as Voisin seems personally unhappy with Mussleman, I am personally unhappy with Voisin, and maybe that's enough to fire to someone. If Mussleman underachieved with his team, Voisin has underachieved in her ability to articulate why. So, if one goes, so must the other.

NBA vs. NCAA

Throughout the Internet, the media and message boards anoint March Madness, the NCAA Tournament and college basketball as the best basketball and vilify the NBA, the league which features less than the top 1% of NCAA players. After watching the NCAA Tournament's anti-climatic finish, despite the presence of its top two teams, would fans really rather watch Florida vs. Ohio State than the seventh game of a Dallas vs. Phoenix Western Conference Finals? Personally, I would forfeit watching the entire NCAA Tournament if my choice was to watch either the NCAA Tournament or a seven game Phoenix/Dallas series.

Top Ten Players In the 2007 NBA Draft

With the NCAA Tournament's conclusion this week, now starts the three-month NBA pre-draft process, as draft sites, bloggers and even professional writers update their mock drafts weekly, even though the order of the draft will not be determined for another two months. So, rather than engage in a weekly attempt to predict a draft order based on team's won-loss records, ping pong ball probability and the wavering commitments of teenagers evaluating their draft status, I, instead, offer a look at the top ten players who, right now, look to be available in this year's draft.

Again, I am not attempting to predict the draft order or guess at a certain team's motives for choosing one player over another. The following is my take on the talent entering this year's draft. In any draft, a team hopes to secure the services of a player who makes the team better; for good teams, this usually means a player who fits into the rotation right away, or a player who illustrates the potential to be a starter down the road, or both; for bad teams (i.e. lottery teams), this means a player who starts right away or a player with the potential to be an all-star down the road, or both. As I evaluate the talent in the draft, I look at the player's ability to contribute to his team during his rookie contract and his potential to be an all-star: a player drafted in the top ten of a deep draft should meet both criteria.

Note: I omitted International players because I have not seen them play, nor know enough to evaluate them properly. I also ignored players like Roy Hibbert and Jeff Green who appear to be staying in school.

1. Kevin Durant, freshman: University of Texas

After Greg Oden's championship game performance, the mass media (especially Billy Packer) united in its admiration of the seven-footer. Most basketball people believe it is heresy to pass up a seven-footer for a 6'10 forward. However, look around the NBA: who are its best players? Nowitski, Wade, Bryant, Nash, Duncan, KG, etc. What do these players have in common? They are multi-talented players who can play anywhere on the floor.

Durant is 6'10 with a freakishly long reach. He has a pull-up jumper from distance better than most PGs in the NBA. He displayed a spectacular array of skills at Texas and has a huge upside, as he adds muscle to his frame. On a lottery team, he is an instant starter and a probable All-Star in his first five years in the League. Also, he has the personality and skills to become a major marketing player. Most importantly, however, is his drive to be the best and willingness to work all day in that pursuit. That as much as anything is why he stands number one on my list. Don't underestimate the desire to be the absolute best; that's the other trait common amongst the player's above.

2. Greg Oden, freshman: Ohio State University
Oden is athletic, explosive and a game-changer on the defensive end. He is an instant starter who makes his team better. He moves well and likely develops into one of, if not the best center in the game once Shaq retires (though Howard, Yao, Bynum, Curry and others may have something to say about that).

He is a proto-type NBA center. However, he looks disinterested for large parts of the game and rarely took over a college game playing against inferior competition. He appears to rise to the occasion in big moments, which is important, especially for the face of a franchise. However, his absolute desire to be the best in the game is not as pronounced as Durant's, which is why Durant elevates to number one, leaving Oden at #2.

3. Corey Brewer, junior: University of Florida

Brewer is a poor man's Durant. He's not as explosive and lacks the pull-up jumper off the dribble, but he has a better handle in traffic and is a more committed defender with similar freakish length (Packer simply referred to him as a seven-footer, which is a stretch for a player who is listed at 6'9, but it illustrates the length). Also, when looking at the top players in the NBA, Brewer could defend most, if not all of the top non-centers: his length could disrupt a PG like Nash or a shooter like Ray Allen, while giving him the opportunity to match-up against versatile threats like Luol Deng and Dirk Nowitski.

Brewer is a proto-type small forward, a definite rotation player as a rookie, probable All-Defense player within his first three seasons and potential All-Star, depending on the development of his outside shooting (consistency) and his situation. Brewer reminds me of Dallas' Josh Howard, even though their strengths and weaknesses differ: I feel Brewer will make a Howard-like impression on his team. Howard was the last pick of the 2003 Draft, considered one of the best in history; however, if we re-played that draft today, Howard would likely be #5 behind fellow All-Stars James, Anthony, Bosh and Wade. In the second best draft of the decade, putting a taller, longer Howard at #3 is not a stretch, especially since I would have been tempted to put him #1 had he left Florida last year.

4. Mike Conley, Jr., freshman: Ohio State University

PG and center are the most coveted positions, and often most difficult to evaluate. However, Conley plays with maturity to his game and separated himself from the pack during the tournament. He is a poor man's Steve Nash. He is a likely starter as a rookie, depending on team, and a potential All-Star within 3-5 years. As for young PGs in the NBA, Deron Williams, Chris Paul and Marcus Williams lead the way. Conley has the quickness, basketball IQ and pedigree to equal or surpass all three and position himself as THE true point guard when Jason Kidd and Steve Nash retire. If we replayed the 2005 Draft, Milwaukee and Atlanta may think twice about passing on Williams and Paul at #1 and #2; I think Conley is a similar player and if the current mock drafts prove accurate, someone will get a steal around the ninth pick.

5. Al Horford, junior: University of Florida

I thought he was Florida's best player last season and definitely would have had him #1 had he left last year. He has great size and agility. He is a good free throw shooter and has the form on his shot to suggest he'll be a good mid-range shooter in the NBA. There are not a lot of flaws to find in his game and he has the potential to be the dominant force everyone once believed his father would be. Overlooked and underappreciated at Florida, Horford's skills translate to the NBA game where he will be an immediate contributor and probable starter with All-Star potential, though the power forward position is currently quite crowded in both conferences with Nowitski, Duncan, Stoudamire and KG virtual locks in the West and Bosh and Howard penciled onto the East team for the remainder of the decade.

6. Joakim Noah, junior: University of Florida

It is important Noah is drafted by a pretty good team or surrounded by pretty good players, as he is not a star or a player to carry a team with his offense. However, his defense and energy are a valuable commodity, as well as his winning ways. I compare him to Anderson Vareajo, and while it seems far too high to draft a player who projects much like a sixth man, Noah is the type of player who may not start, but likely finishes games. Again, his ceiling is not very high; he is what he is. He does not have the form to improve his shot, so he will always be inconsistent as a shooter. However, he passes really well, rebounds and defends and if he ends up a little more like Ben Wallace than Vareajo, his selection at #6 will be a huge value. In the Western Conference, he certainly has appeal as a player who can defend Duncan, Nowitski, KG, Stoudamire and Odom. He would be ideal in Houston playing next to Yao Ming and TMac.

7. Spencer Hawes, freshman: University of Washington

Hawes is the first player who I think should stay in school because he lacks the required strength to start from Day 1. However, he has the complete skill package: hooks with each hand, college three-point range and passing ability. He is not a great athlete, nor is he is unathletic. His skill set is much like that of Chris Webber's, a former #1 pick, though he lacks the athleticism and demeanor Webber possessed out of college. On a team like Philadelphia which is in desperate need of an interior scorer to complement its high scoring wings (Igoudala and Korver), Hawes will excel, especially after 2-3 years in the league when he fills out and adds more strength and agility to his game.

8. Nick Young, junior: USC

Watching Young in the tournament reminded me of one recent player: Dwyane Wade. I don't think Young is as good as Wade coming out of college, but he is a better shooter. If Young learns to use his quickness to get to the free throw line as much as Wade, he could develop into a similar scoring threat at the NBA level. Worst case scenario is he is a slightly smaller Kevin Martin, a lethal, efficient scorer poised to be the NBA's Most Improved Player this year. Any team (Charlotte? New Orleans?) needing a back court scorer would benefit from Young's athleticism, shooting and confidence.

9. Brandan Wright, freshman: University of North Carolina

Wright is a great athlete with incredible length. However, his skills are very limited and he certainly needs to improve to be a significant contributor at the NBA level. While he possesses more "upside" than Noah, at this point Noah has more skills, is a better passer with better agility and similar size. Upside and potential only have value if they are realized; Wright has work to do if he wants to be more than a Tyson Chandler-type player.

10. Acie Law, IV, senior: Texas A&M

Mr. Big Shot, college-style, Law has everything a team wants in its starting PG. Depending upon who drafts him, Law could start right away and be a very good rookie. In time, he could be a Chauncey Billups/Sam Cassell-type PG. He's the type of player Jerry Sloan and Scott Skiles love, though neither appears to be in the market for a PG. He's the exact player the Knicks desperately need: a tough leader unafraid of taking the big shot or putting players in their place with the skills to be a consummate point guard.

Note: This was written when everyone expected Julian Wright to go back to Kansas> I was waiting for another site to publish it, but it is too slow.

Kings/Rockets Impressions

A couple quick thoughts from the Kings vs. Rockets game:

1. Francisco Garcia is the smartest player on the Kings and easily my favorite. As Houston was setting up for a lob dunk to Tracy McGrady, Garcia leapt from his seat on the bench, waving a towel, and yelled at the players involved. At the next timeout, he explained the breakdowns in some rotations to the assistant coaches. And, to show what he meant, he later rotated quickly to take a charge on the baseline. Garcia gets it.

2. Besides the lack of rotations, the other thing that seemed to frustrate Garcia was John Salmons awful shot selection. Garcia was visibly upset on at least three occasions when Salmons, not a good shooter, pulled up for shots rather than passing to Garcia, who was hot from the field. Salmons, for a player everyone insists is a point guard, makes poor decisions, takes bad shots, passes the ball to shooters too late and carries the ball on nearly every dribble. I like his aggressiveness when attacking the basket, but he is should be an easy cover: if the ball is in his right hand, he is no threat for a pull-up jumper; the only time he shoots a pull-up jumper is off a freeze dribble with the ball in his left hand (because of his whack shooting form); when he drives baseline, especially with his left hand, he is always looking to spin back to the middle of the floor. And, he passes only as an afterhtought when he is going to the rim. There are times his aggressiveness is a huge plus; but, there are times when it kills the rest of the team (he's like Artest in that respect, or Bobby Jackson in the old days). But, he should not, ever, be confused with a PG because he is adept at driving to the basket. Kevin Martin is a better playmaker than Salmons, and Garcia is a much better lead guard.

3. Chuck Hayes might have the worst free throw shooting form in the NBA. Seriously, if you are Chuck's agent, call me. I'll work with him in the off-season. He's from Modesto, which isn't far away. I guarantee results. Seriously. If he doesn't shoot a better percentage next year, I'll refund the money. I know he is a hard worker, as that's really how he made the NBA. So, I know he can improve (unless he has some kind of broken arm; I've actually worked with players whose arms do not rotate properly. If that's the case, I apologize for the criticism and wish him luck. Short of some physical limitation, let's talk).

4. As a Kings' fan, if the Maloofs drop the hammer on Mussleman, I wonder who they think is going to come in and control two petulant stars (Artest and Bibby) who are surrounded by a bunch of hardworking kids and some past their prime posts (SAR, Miller) who can't sem to be 100% healthy. It's not an enviable job.

However, if the Kings rid themselves of Bibby and Artest, and decide to start from scratch, I'd love to see the Kings draft Mike Conley, Jr. and hire Marc Ivaroni from Phoenix. Conley, Martin and Garcia would be a joy to watch, with Salmons and Price off the bench. It's not a championship team, but they would be fun and the fans would root for these guys. The success would ultimately be determined by who Petrie could get for Bibby and Artest. But, I have to assume the Lakers could be persuaded to offer one or two of the young bigs (Turiaf, Brown, Cook or, less likely, Bynum) for Bibby and maybe the Isaiah Thomas would give up someone with value for Artest. I'm thinking a three-way trade with the Knicks and Seattle that brought Artest and Ridnour to New York, landed the Kings Rashard Lewis and Seattle Nate Robinson and Jared Jeffries could be a win-win-win.

5. Finally, I watched Cleveland play for the first time in a while. Hubie Brown and Mike Tirico talked a lot about the Cavs woes at the end of games. First, they run terrible plays, from the ones which I have seen. I was wondering why the Cavs don't have another shooter in the game at the end. They tend, it seems, to try and run pick and rolls with bigs, but LeBron James is not going to be able to do much when he is trapped by Rasheed Wallace and Tayshaun Prince. Why not have one of the small shooters set the screen, like Daniel Gibson or Damon Jones? If they switch, James has a much smaller player whom he can back down and shoot over; if they double, he can pass over the small players' heads to an open three-point shooter. It's touch to make a quick pass over the top of a taller player and the slower pass enables a quicker rotation. And, using Hughes in the pick and roll is not as effective because he is not a huge threat to knock down the three. Just a thought. Again, don't really watch many Cavs games, but it did occur to me during the game yesterday.

Ronnie Price and the NBA Experience

Sacramento Kings' Ronnie Price outplayed Mike Bibby last night. He did everything better; he knocked down threes and shots off the dribble and defended well. He definitely established himself as a legitimate back-up PG and led the Kings to the win.

Regardless of whether Bibby returns or not, the Kings need Price (assuming he is resigned) to play in the NBA Rookie Leagues. He needs to be THE PG and play 40+ minutes a game. He needs to learn the position. He illustrated the willingness to lead, as he motioned Ron Artest to tell Artest where to go. However, he passes the ball too late and Kevin Martin missed the opportunity to shoot two wide open threes because Price was too late with the pass. Price certainly needs seasoning and experience, but he has the basic tools and athleticism to be a great change of pace, defensive pest as a back-up PG. With a great summer, Price could be a 20 minutes a game back-up PG.

At the game, we in the stands wondered why Deron Williams and AK47 failed to return to the bench (or the game) for the second half. It's terrible that we pay a lot of money for tickets and sit through breaks in action with some doofus running around the court with a microphone. It's bad enough that the Kngs have done away with real half-time shows and no make it community hour wth local karate or gymnastics groups.

But, why can't we see highlights of other games during breaks or at half-time? Why can't we get an announcement as to why the players I came to see are no longer playing? It's quite frustrating. If a Kings' telecast was not so bad because of Reyonolds and Napear, I'd rather watch the game on television than at the arena, as at least then I can se some highlights of other games and find out why players are absent from the line-ups.

In the current technological age, a lot more could be done to enhance the viewing experience, and I am not talking about throwing out more free t-shirts and other stunts which distract from the game and appease the mass of idiotic fans like the women infront of me who clapped only one all game, when the "thunder sticks" caused an opponent to miss a free throw. They were all excited. And, then they left with 18 minutes left in the game. These are the fans the current stunts appease. I'd much rather the organization aim its marketing efforts at the intelligent fan who wants more information and more opportunity to be involved with basketball and the NBA, not cheerleaders, 6 year olds gymnasts or thunder sticks (however, I do love the hip-hop kids and think they should be at every single game).

NBA Articles

Fixing the NBA the European Way
Since the World Championships, much has been written about the problems with the NBA. One popular perception is the length of the season which creates meaningless games, either at the beginning of the season or once teams are eliminated from the play-offs and begin sand-bagging to join the Greg Oden Derby.

While watching Man. U play Celtic last night in a Champions League football (er, soccer) match, I devised a plan to fix the NBA.

USA Basketball Learning from US Soccer's Mistakes
What is amazing is one of the most organized development systems in the world fails to produce players with world class ability, while the beachs and streets of barrios in Brasil, Argentina and elsewhere produce multiple teams worth of International playmakers.

The problem is similar to that afflicting basketball development: too much structure, organization and adult involvement stifles creative development and self-learning and players simply lack the feel, touch, vision and creativity of world class players. In basketball, the urban parks provided these learning environments to generations past, but today, kids have left the parks in favor of AAU Tournaments, free shoes and overcoaching; kids depend on coaching more and more and this dependence eliminates creativity, quick decision-making and feel. This is less evident in basketball, as more American athletes pursue basketball than soccer, but each suffers from the same affliction.

Potential is a Danderous Word as Draft Approaches
Every year as the NBA Draft approached, the words “potential,” “talent” and “upside” are used by every writer, fan and NBA Draft afficionado; web sites like NBA Draft and Draft Express devote an entire site strictly to prognostications and evaluations of potential draft picks. Essentially, these sites do nothing more than talk about potential, just as the daily sports section describes the action in the previous night’s game.

The Euro's Are Coming
As possibly the greatest first round in NBA history kicked-off, journalists across the country attacked the NBA and American players in a series of articles praising the unselfish International player. As Kobe Bryant willed the Lakers to a seventh game and LeBron James and Gilbert Arenas staged an epic battle for East Coast backcourt supremacy; while Vince Carter dispalyed his dazzling array of skills and Bonzi Wells dominated the San Antonio Spurs' backcourt, journalists such as Rick Telander and Greg Boeck trumpeted the arrval of the "Next Dirk" Andrea Bargnani and a flock of followers from Europe bound to overrun the NBA and change the complexion of the game.

NBA Age Limit
Okay, I admit it; when Duke’s Shavlik Randolph and Arizona’s Chris Rodgers enter the NBA Draft early, something is amiss. However, does the NBA need an age limit just because these college students suffer from delusion and make poor life choices? College students make poor decisions every day; why should student-athletes be exempt? Or saved?

Bill Simmons Agrees...And, Somebody Mute Billy Packer

In February, I compared Joakim Noah to Anderson Vareajo. In today's column, Bill Simmons called Noah a "Rich Man's Vareajo."

As I watched the Championship Game, and listened to Billy Packer and Jim Nantz go on and on about Greg Oden playing 35 minutes, I started to wonder about what injury he was overcoming. After he played the first eight minutes of the second half, Packer could not contain himself and mentioned over and over how much heart Oden had playing all those minutes.

Are you kidding? This is the "Next Greatest Center in the History of Basketball." The man who is supposed to be the next Bill Russel, Tim Duncan or Patrick Ewing. There are timeouts every four minutes. Plus, each coach gets six timeouts. With all those stoppages, players should be able to play forty minutes if necessary.

Oden had his best game of the year and had to play against several different Gators. I get it. But, really, should it be that surprising that the future of basketball can play 35 minutes? And, if it is that surprising or even noteworthy, is he really the Future?

Did anyone catch how Packer went from suggesting that, at 6'9 with long arms, Brewer was "almost seven-feet" to simply calling him a seven-footer at later stages of the game? He just started to give away three inches.

Packer's other classic lines included his confusing Ohio State and Florida when talking about Donovan's startegy to keep Florida from getting to the free throw line as frequently as the Gators did against UCLA and Oregon. Huh? Donovan was working against his own team? Does CBS even care anymore? It's been 33 years: retire him already.

And, seriously, did Packer suggest Oden should be the MOP in a losing effort? Does he watch the games? Sure, Oden had a good, maybe even great game in the Finals, but (1) they lost; (2) Conley is the Buckeyes MVP; and (3) Corey Brewer's shooting and defense was the difference in both games (he outscored the rest of his team combined in the 1st half of the UCLA game while shutting down a First Team All-American).

First Look at the 2007 NBA Draft

Now that the college basketball season is over for me, I checked out the two major NBA Draft sites to see how their predictions have changed. And, the sites are starting to show some sense, as the players I have liked for a while have finally made their impressions on the draft boards.

Over at Draft Express, Jonathan Givony was the first (I think) to move Kevin Durant to the #1 spot. When I first watched Durant play, I had yet to see Oden play and Durant played probably the worst game of his season (except maybe the Villanova game). I told one of my players that he had to be the best player in college basketball and if Oden was better, nobody had a chance. The more I watch Oden, the more I would take Durant #1. Oden showed a little more explosiveness last night, but he has zero emotion. I don't want Noah emotions, but I want to know the kid cares. Durant loves the game. From what I, as an outsider, know, Durant has everything necessary to be the most talented, most marketable player in the NBA. And, while centers might win championships, I do not see Oden as the next Bill Russel or Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and this is a new era anyway. If I am an owner, Durant = $$$ in jersey sales, TV ratings, etc. And, he may be the player who redefines the forward position, combining Shawn Marion, Dirk Nowitski, KG and TMac. Now, he's 19 and may never maximize his potential. But, if I'm gambling (and drafing a 19 year old is always a inor gamble at least), I gamble on Durant's passion and desire over Oden's size and freakish potential.

Both sites have Al Horford #4, which is up dramatically from the beginning of the year. Finally. However, I would take Horford #3. I like him better than Carolina's Brendan Wright. Wright is longer and more athletic, but Horford is more polished and stronger. I thought Horford was the best Gator last year and a possible #1 pick had he entered last year's draft (I liked Brandon Roy and didn't know much about Andrea Bargnani except one clip which made him look very, very good, but would have taken Horford over any of the college bigs like Aldridge or Thomas).

Draft Express has Roy Hibbert at #5 and NBA Draft Net has Hibbert #8. I love Hibbert. As last night illustrated, there is not a significant gap between Oden and Hibbert. I was confused all season, as most sites had Oden #1 and Hibbert out of the lottery. Hibbert certainly needs to improve, but he shows glimpses of being a game-changer. Plus, he shoots the ball reasonably well for a seven-footer (despite his poor FT performance) and is comfortable handling the ball on the perimeter as a passer. He came to college three years ago as a huge project and has improved immensely. I do not think he has reached his ceiling. I'm just happy to see both sites finally pushed Hibbert ahead of Spencer Hawes and Haseem Thabet, neither of whom is Hibbert's equal right now or in terms of "upside" and "potential."

Both sites still underrate Corey Brewer (DE at #13 and NDN at #14). I maintain Brewer is the #2 prospect on the Gators and he solidified that claim in the semi-finals. He is a 6'9 G who can defend and slash. When his jumper is falling, as it was last night, he's as good as anyone in college basketball. In the 1st half, he held a First Team AA scoreless and scored more than half his team's points (15/29). And, it's not like he has maximized his potential on the college level; he has oom to improve as he adds strength and consistency to his jump shot. How high he moves is dependent on a team's needs, but I can't see him not being a top 8 pick.

Jeff Green moved to #6 on NBA Draft Net and #14 on DE, which is quite a jump for a player thought of as an end of he round first round pick. After watching Green while attending the Big East Tournament, I realized how immensely talented he is. While I love Brewer, it'd be a tough choice if given Brewer or Green and a need for a small forward. Green has a complete package as well and is an adept passer: he was criticized for not looking for his shot against OSU, but he gave teammates absoluet bunnies on 3 straight occassions and his teammats did not convert-is that Green's fault (then we criticize Kobe for shooting too much and not trusting his teammates. Can these guys win? Damned if they do, damned if they don't). #6 might be too high for Green in this draft, depending on who eventually enters, but #14 seems too low for a player who has shown this much talent and versatility.

Finally, the PG battle: Acie Law vs. Mike Conley, Jr. DE has Law #10 and Conley #12, while NBN has Law #19 and Conley staying in school. I love both players. Which one I like more depends on my team. If I play a slower pace and want a guy to get me into my sets and knock down open shots (Houston), Law is my choice. If I play up tempo and depend on my PG to make a lot of plays (Phoenix), give me Conley (so, I take Conley, though I love Law's guts at the end of the game). If the Kings end up at the end of the lottery and find a way to move Bibby, Law would be a great replacement, as he adds most of the qualities Bibby possesses, plus defense.

This is my first look. I don't do a mock draft until the draft order is decided. But, this is a potentially epic draft with even more depth than the 2003 class.